أهم العوامل السياسية المؤثرة في عجز الموازنة العامة للدولة في الجمهورية اليمنية : دراسة قياسية للفترة 2000-2019 م

الملخص EN

The study aimed to identify the most important political factors affecting the state budget deficit in Yemen, during the period 2000/2019, in the light of the standard analysis method; using the techniques and tests of standard statistical analysis of real political and financial data and indicators, the study reached several results, the most important of which are: the deficit growth rate in the general state budget in Yemen during the period 2000/2019 ad, was 2.44 which is the index shows the growth of the size of the deficit annual, which shows that the highest degree of deficit was in five years, the last period (2015-2019) where he reached (43.89%), followed by the five years preceding this stage with a deficit degree of (27.1%) for the stage (2010-2014), followed by the stage the previous one (2005-2009) with a degree of disability amounted to (19.75%), while it was found that the lowest rate of disability was in the first stage (2000-2004) with a degree of (9.25%).

linear regression analysis of the results also showed that the most important factors of political influence in the deficit of the budget of the republic of Yemen during the study period, is the factor (px3d2_yem) which indicator (corruption and political); where the results of the study showed that this factor can explain the occurrence of change in the deficit budget by (86.0%) ; and that the model standard that has been reconciled, the variables of political influence in the deficit budget , the general state of Yemen is reduced to image the standard the following: yex yem = 16.594 - 2.31px3.

in light of the study results, the researcher presented a number of recommendations and suggestions.