التحليل الاقتصادي لدالة استجابة العرض لمحصول فول الصويا في مصر

الملخص EN

The research aimed to identify the current economic situation of the soybean crop in Egypt during the period 2005-2017 by identifying the trends and development of its production and the cost structure according to production requirements and estimating the supply response function in order to identify the most important variables affecting the decrease in the cultivated area of it.

Which helps the agricultural policy planners to take special decisions towards motivating farmers to plant it again to maximize the role of the crop in bridging the nutritional gap of vegetable oils.

To achieve its objectives, the research used some statistical indicators, which are the arithmetic and geometric mean and percentages to highlight the relative importance of the variables under study, in addition to the annual growth rate to highlight the trends of the variables under study, and regression analysis with delay periods to estimate the supply response function in the Nerlov method.

Among the most important findings of the research during the study period 2005-2017 are the following:
The annual growth rate of the cultivated area, production and net yield of soybean crop in Egypt during the study period was about 4.6% , 3.6% , 7.2% , respectively.

The annual growth rate of the local production of soybean oil, available for consumption in Egypt during the study period, was about 1.1% and 4.6% , respectively.

The estimation of the supply response function for the soybean crop in Egypt during the study period showed that the feddan productivity in the previous year had a positive effect, as its increase by about 1% leads to an increase in the cultivated area in the current year by 0.192% , while the negative results showed the effect of total costs For the previous year, an increase of about 1% leads to a decrease in the cultivated area in the current year by 0.465% .

Therefore, the research recommends expanding the area planted with soybean crop as a strategic multi-use crop, and the state depends on it to a large extent in covering the oily food gap and developing livestock, poultry and fish as fodder, as well as using it in the production of oils.

It is also necessary to work on increasing the feddan productivity, especially in light of the state's strategy in agricultural development.

sustainable.