تحليل اقتصادي لإنتاج محصول البسلة الخضراء في مصر

الملخص EN

The production of food commodities has a major role in the implementation of economic development programs, as the outcome of that production participates in determining the national income, and financing the state's needs of funds, and the agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors in the state that contributes to economic and social development, especially in the production and Providing food commodities, especially vegetables, which are distinguished by their production in Egypt, including the green pea crop, which receives local and international acceptance.

The research problem is represented in the presence of a decrease in both the area and production of the green pea crop, which was estimated at about 35.73% and 34.96% , respectively, during the average period (2005 - 2019), and therefore a decrease in the quantities produced locally in the face of consumer quantities is estimated at about 7.4 thousand tons.

The research aimed to study the current situation of the production of the green pea crop in Egypt through the study and analysis of economic indicators to predict the area and production of the green pea crop using the Box-Jenkins model in order to contribute to knowing the real reasons that led to the instability of production from the Egyptian pea during the study period.

Considering that the peas can be displayed fresh or frozen, which necessitates studying the quantities produced from the peas and ways to increase them, increasing their monetary value and annual growth rates of production, as well as estimating some economic indicators to guide decision makers.

In achieving its objectives, the research relied on both descriptive and inferential statistical analysis methods.

Secondary data published through the Economic Affairs Sector of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation were used, in addition to Arab and foreign references related to the subject of the research.

Among the most important results:
1- The area of the green pea crop decreased from about 55.96 thousand feddans in 2005 to about 35.96 thousand feddans, with a decrease rate of about 35.73% .

2 - It is expected that the winter green pea area will continue to decrease from 41.47 thousand acres in 2017 to about 41.22 thousand acres in 2023.

3- The average area of the green pea crop reached about 47 thousand acres, representing about 6.7% of the total area of winter vegetables crops, which amounted to about 702 thousand acres, during the average period (2005 - 2019).

4- It was found that the time series was not stable and the production of the pea crop fluctuated between decrease and increase, as the production of the green pea crop decreased from about 236.26 thousand tons in 2005 to about 153.66 thousand tons in 2019, a decrease of 34.96% .

5- It is expected to increase the production of the green pea crop from about 41.5 thousand tons in 2017 to about 44.22 thousand tons in 2023, an increase of 6.62% .

The research recommended vertical and horizontal expansion in the cultivation of the crop and an attempt to solve farmers' problems by providing production requirements at the appropriate time, place and price.