أثر سعر الصرف الفعلي الحقيقي في الميزان التجاري الجزائري : تحليل عدم التناظر باستخدام نموذج NARDL

الملخص EN

This study examines the likelihood of asymmetry in trade balance interactions with exchange rate changes, using quarterly data from Algeria for the period 1988-Q1 to Q4 2019.

for modeling, the NARDL model has been chosen.

then, we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure.

empirical findings show the symmetric effects of exchange rate changes on trade balance.

more specifically, although the depreciation of the dinar has no appreciable effects on the commercial balance of Algeria, its appreciation has a significant and favorable effects.

the NARDL model provide new evidence for slower transmission of exchange rate depreciations into the Algerian’s trade balance.

this finding suggests that policy-makers cannot hope to use currency devaluation to improve the trade balance.