التقدير القياسي لمحددات الطلب على الواردات الجزائرية باستخدام نماذج ARDL لاختبار الحدود

الملخص EN

This paper aims to estimate the determinants of demand for Algerian imports during the period 1980-2017 using the ARDL bounds testing approach, as well as the analysis of the dynamic behavior of imports in the short term in order to identify the mechanism of adjustment of the demand for imports in the short term to maintain its equilibrium level in the long term.

the results indicated that imports are inelastic in regard to their determinants, which include the PIB, related prices, and the number of exports.

despite the rigidity of imports in regard to their determinants, exports, followed by PIB and then price-related factors, are the biggest determinants over the long run.

nevertheless, over the long run, the main factor affecting Algerian imports is the PIB, followed by prices, with the difference between exports being insignificant.

the estimation results also revealed that in the event of a shock, the time for imports to return to equilibrium is 6.30 years, and the adjustment speed towards equilibrium is 0.15%.

per year this extremely low percentage may be explained by the existence of barriers or commercial policies that require time to adapt.