تحليل أثر أهم المتغيرات الاقتصادية الراهنة على الميزان التجاري الزراعي المصري

الملخص EN

The study aimed to analyze the evolution of the structure of the Egyptian agriculture foreign trade, since the beginning of the twenty-first century.

by examines the impact of the most important economic changes during the period 2000-2021.

the study relied on use of descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis methods such as time-trend equations, the co-integration test and vector error correction model VECM.

the study period was divided into three periods.

result of study showed that period 2016-2021 was the most difficult period of national economic growth, as it was shown a slowdown in the growth rates of agricultural exports, reaching 12.7% in the first period 2000-2007, 2.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and 2.3% in the third period 2016-2021, and the Annual change rates of agricultural imports reached 3.8% in the first period 2000-2007, reached 11.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and reached 10.5% in the third period 2016-2021.

the stability of the time series of variables for the time period 2000-2021 at the first level was shown in intercept as well as a categorical intercept and trend, and by conducting the Johansen test, it was found that there is a integration between the study variables and both agricultural exports and imports, and for a balance between them it is necessary to delay three time periods, and by applying the error correction model the vector VECM showed an inverse relationship between agricultural imports and both the exchange rate and the global food price index (FAO), as well as an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports, and a direct relationship between agricultural exports and the world food price index.