محددات الطلب الأوروبي على السياحة في مصر

الملخص EN

In this study, the critical parameters of the determinants of European demand for tourism in Egypt were estimated using the annual combined cross-sectional time series data for the period (1991-2016) and by applying the fixed effects model.

the applied results have proven that in the long term there is a positive significant relationship between European tourist demand and each of the real per capita income of the countries of origin, the prices of the competing country, which is Tunisia, and the effect of repeated visits.

and a negative significant relationship with the relative prices between Egypt and European countries, the population, the impact of the events of the January 25, 2011 revolution, and the impact of the crash of the Russian plane in 2015.

while the effect of the degree of trade openness between Egypt and Europe was not significant.

while the significant impact of the Luxor terrorist incident in 1997 has not been proven in the long term, although the parameter has its expected negative sign.

on the other hand, in the short term, there is a positive significant relationship between European tourist demand and the chances of repeat visits.

and the existence of a negative significant relationship with the relative prices between Egypt and European countries.

and the existence of a negative moral relationship with the relative prices between Egypt and European countries, and the existence of a negative moral relationship to the impact of the Luxor terrorist incident in 1997.

the model estimation results also show that although the parameters of the rest of the variables, which are the degree of trade openness, the population, the impact of the January 25, 2011 revolution, and the impact of the crash of the Russian plane in 2015 carried their expected signal according to the economic theory, they were not significant.

the study also found that if European tourist demand is one percent out of equilibrium, a 63 percent adjustment towards equilibrium will be corrected or restored during the first year.

the study recommended that economic policy makers in Egypt be keen on obtaining the satisfaction of European tourists to increase the chances of repeating his visit and intensifying tourism marketing in European countries with a high average per capita income.

this is in addition to considering the variable price of tourist trips and the prices of countries competing with Egypt in terms of tourism, as they have a clear impact on European tourism flows.

care must be taken to ensure political stability and the continuous strengthening of insurance measures against terrorist incidents.