أثر اختيار نظام الصرف على تراكم الاحتياطات الدولية في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية

الملخص EN

This research paper aims to test the effect of choosing the Exchange Rate Regime on the accumulation of International Reserves in Algeria for the period 1995-2020 using the ARDL model, which witnessed the adoption of the managed floating regime.

The results of the model estimation are consistent with the economic theory and confirm that the gradual arrangement of the fixed exchange regime and the tendency to enhance exchange rate stability has an impact on the reserves and requires acceptable levels of reserves.

The results of this study also confirmed what was presented by researchers Reinhart and Calvo (2002) with the so-called "fear of floating", which states in Algeria that the monetary authorities officially authorize the International Monetary Fund to adopt the managed floating regime, but the economic reality shows that it is a peg regime.

The results of the study also showed that the variables included in the model explained the reserves by 99.28%, which confirms the correlation of the level of reserves with oil revenues and what necessitates the promotion of exports outside of hydrocarbons to diversify incomes and the adoption of an exchange rate regime that encourages investment, capital movement and competition.