محددات استجابة عرض القطن في مصر

الملخص EN

An economic study of the response to cotton supply in Egypt Summary: The functions of supply response to a particular crop are of a non-reflexive nature, meaning that the explanatory variables that lead to an increase in the cultivated area of the crop are not necessarily the same that lead to the same, and the variables of productivity and farm prices control the desire of cotton growers, so the aim of the research is to study the extent of response The cotton display represented by the acre productivity and the farm prices of the same crop and its competing yields and other explanatory variables represented in the cost per acres and the net yield of the acres, and therefore these variables control the increase and decrease of the cultivated area of the crop, and study the impact of the change occurring in the most important explanatory variables affecting the desire of cotton growers to Cultivation of more or less areas of the crop in order to reach a stable level of prices and production of cotton in Egypt.

The response models of the width of the cotton crop were estimated to its explanatory variables using the dynamic Marc Nerlove Dynamic model along with the criteria and statistical tests that show the ence of measurement problems in the estimated models, which considered the area of cotton planted in the current year as a function of the area planted with cotton with a general delay, as well as the rest of its variables, and it became clear There is a statistically significant response to the area of cotton in Egypt in the current year to the change in acres of productivity and acres costs in the previous year only, while the response of cotton supply to the variables of farm price and net yield in the previous year was not proven.

The annual response factor is 0.313 tons, and the time required to achieve a full response for the farmer is about 3.19 years, starting from the year following planting, which is longer than the full response period to the change in acre productivity.

The cotton supply response models were estimated to the changes occurring in the explanatory variables of cotton and its competitive outcomes represented in farm prices, feddan costs and net feddan yield on the full linear picture and by the backward deletion method.

The previous year and the real agricultural price of rice in the previous year by the unit amount leads to an increase in the cotton supply in the current year by about 450 and 55 thousand feddans, respectively, while the decrease in the real price of corn by one pound leads to an increase in the current cotton supply by about 72 thousand feddans.

The overall elasticity of the model was about 0.33.