تقدير العلاقات التوازنية طويلة الأجل لمحصولي القمح و الذرة الشامية في مصر

الملخص EN

Wheat and maize considered are strategic crops that are related to Egyptian food security.

However.

the production capacity still less than its consumption requirements for each crop.

So.

the study aims to investigate the variables that affecting of wheat and maize cultivated area to close the gap between production and consumption.

Towards to achieve this objective.

partial adjustment model of Marc Nerlove has been applied to estimate the supply response of wheat and maize crops over period 2000-2020.

Then, the study provided a quantitative analysis to estimate the long-term equilibrium relationship for these crops using ARDL Model approach.

The results indicate that according to the ECT value of wheat crop has been measure the ability and speed of the model to return to balanced towards the long term.

indicating that it is balanced towards the long term at a speed of 29 %.

71 %.

35% and 68% for the explanatory variables after one year.

While.

the value of the significant effect in the short term of farm price.

productivity.

and net return was about 0.20.

0.25.

0.05.

indicating that it positively affects the area cultivated by the crop.

with the rise of these variables by about 1%.

the area cultivated by the crop (i.e., causality short term in area) increases by 0.20%.

0.25%.

0.05% with a decrease in per-capita costs by 0.32%.

Furthermore, the results of ECT estimation of maize crop indicated that the effect value of the farm price, feddan productivity, feddan costs and net yield per feddan amounted to about -1.16.

-0.34.

-0.83.

-0.41.

which means that these variables Balanced with the long run and the deviation towards the long run was corrected at a speed of 1.16%.

0.34%.

0.83% and 0.41%.

while the statistical significance of the effect of any of the explanatory variables in the short term was not established.