التحليل القياسي لآثر بعض العوامل المرتبطة بالتغيرات المناخية على مؤشر إنتاج الغذاء المصري

الملخص EN

There is no doubt that climate change negatively affects economic growth rates and thus increases poverty rates, especially in developing countries, as these countries bear most of the damage caused by global warming.

Hence, international organizations concerned with the environment have sounded alarm bells to warn of the deterioration of the climate, and to alert the world that this deterioration could have horrific repercussions as a result of the increase in carbon emissions.

Although more than 5 decades have passed since the beginning of official international agreements, the rates of desertification and drought, and then the rates of poverty and hunger, are increasing in severity, especially in developing countries, as a result of greenhouse gases.

Proceeding from the problem, the research seeks to study the impact of the international agreements on climate by identifying the most important provisions of the agreements, determining the role of Egypt in these international agreements, and studying the impact of these agreements on Egypt through a quadripartite analysis.

Finally, studying the impact of climate change on the Egyptian food index.

By studying the degree of co-integration between the model variables represented in the food production index during the period (1980 - 2020), total greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature, production index, livestock production index, it was found that there is an integration relationship between the variables.

We reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a correlation for cointegration.

By estimating the regression relationship using the LS model, it was found that there is an inverse relationship between the food production index and each of the total greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature, which is consistent with the economic logic, where the food production index decreases by a statistically significant percentage by about 4%, 0.1% , 3% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature by 10%, respectively.

Recommendations: 1.

Benefiting from the Paris Agreement in technology support and technology transfer for developing countries.

2.

Facilitate and inject investments in the field of renewable energy.

3.

Providing soft loans to citizens to adapt to climate changes, especially marginalized groups.