دراسة تحليلية لاقتصاديات إنتاج الذرة الصفراء في مصر

الملخص EN

yellow maize crop is one of the most important grain crops in Egypt, as it enters into many food uses, whether for humans or animals, However, its production capacity is less than its consumption requirements.

The problem of research was represented in the inability total yellow maize production to meet the growing demand for it.

Thus it causes gap increasing with about 7.737 million tons during the average period (2000-2019), which increases the burden on the Egyptian trade balance, due to import these quantities.

the research aims included study the current status of yellow maize production economics and estimate yellow maize supply response in Egypt for some of its determinants during the study period, using the concept of cointegration and error correction, In addition to estimating the degree of responsiveness of farmers and the elasticity of supply in both the short and long term.

The study revealed the following: * The area cultivated of yellow maize in Egypt showed increase statistically significant.

Moreover, the production showed statistically significant annual increase by about 134.7 thousand tons during the same period, The total costs, farm price and the net yield also increased with statistically significant by about 408.4, 144.9 and 86.6 pounds, respectively.

* The presence of significant differences in feddan production of yellow maize crop between different varieties and the strong effect of time on the feddan production on probability level 0.01 * To avoid spurious regression problem, time series of the model variables were analyzed using augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF).

Results of this test revealed that the time series were non-stationary at their levels, stationary in their first difference, and they were all cointegrated, with the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between yellow maize- cultivated area and its determinants.

* The result of the (ECM) showed the significance of the model used in the research and there is no autocorrelation problem.

And the cultivated area Corrects every year by 20% and negative sign indicates to the equilibrium value.

* The speed of adjustment to equilibrium takes 5 years after the shock in the model which results from the change in one variables.

* by studying the elasticity of farmers' response to yellow maize cultivation in the short and long term, calculated by the error correction model in the model of the variables involved during the study period, the price elasticity of yellow maize was 0.232 and 0.434 in the short- and long-run respectively, while cross elasticities of rice were -0.196 and -0.398 in short- and long-run respectively.

As the elasticities values were less than one, the supply of this crop could be described as inelastic.

Recommendations: - redistribute the varieties to the governorates that achieve the highest productivity, and care of extension fields to deliver technical recommendations relating to the new varieties developed - provide an appropriate database to expected prices, with effective steps taken to protect farmers with the aim of increasing the cultivated area and thus increasing production (contract farming).

- Benefiting from the economic derivatives of short and long-term and cross elasticities when formulating price policy.