التنبؤ بالمتغيرات الاقتصادية للقمح في مصر باستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية المتحركة

الملخص EN

Wheat is considered one of the most important food crops in Egypt, whether to use it for population consumption or to use it in some industries and others.

Egypt suffers from a large gap between production and consumption.

The estimation of future wheat needs is one of the essential tools that may help decision-makers to determine wheat needs and then developing plans that help reduce the gap between production and consumption besides providing the necessary financial sums for that.

Where most prediction methods are valid for one-year prediction.

However, moving prediction methods have been found to measure and predict the future movement of the dependent variable.

Which included production, consumption, farm price, world price, border price, import price, as well as the apparent gap and value of imports of wheat, over the period (2000-2017), to predict the values of these variables in the period (2018-2022) The results showed: According to the results of the prediction of the economic variables of wheat in Egypt, which are statistically significant according to many related tests, it was revealed that the Egyptian production of wheat in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 is expected to reach 8.17, 8.12, 8.07 million tons, and that The Egyptian consumption of wheat is about 24.48, 24.52, 24.55 million tons, so the quantity of the wheat gap in Egypt will be about 16.31, 16.4, 16.48 million tons in the same years.

Also, it is expected, according to the expectations of production and consumption, as well as the import price, that the value of Egyptian wheat imports will be about 3.495, 3.497, and 3.499 billion dollars in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 each, respectively.

Research is recommended that: Establishing a database on the future status of agriculture that helps decision-makers in drawing up various policies that benefit the country.

In addition to conducting more studies in a field of forecasting for different agricultural crops.

Besides its various items of prices, production, export, import, agricultural labor, wages, and investment.

Moreover, it can be benefit from the results of forecasting in the comparison of use agricultural inputs and the substitution between agricultural production factors.

Besides, distribution of crops intended for consumption