دراسة تحليلية للعوامل المؤثرة على استهلاك بعض أنواع اللحوم الحمراء في مصر

الملخص EN

The agricultural is one of the main sectors in the Egyptian economic structure.

The animal production, is one of the components of Egyptian agriculture.

The value of its local production has estimated at about 187.37 billion pounds, representing 35.07% of the total value of agricultural production valued about 534.24billion pounds a year 2019.The important of the animal production is due to be source of animal protein necessary for human nutrition from red meat and its various alternatives and per-capita consumption in Egypt estimated at 9.94kg vs 41.90kg internationally in year2019This shows the inability of local production to adequately meet consumer needs in light of the decline in real individual incomes and the increase in the population.

Studying the development of production and consumption of red meat in Egypt, indicated that the production of beef and buffalo meat decreased by 1.4%,2.9% respectively.

The consumption of beef has increased by about 1.2%, while the consumption of buffalo meat decreased by 3%.This led to a decrease in the average per- capita share during the same period, by 2.1%.

The production has decreased at a rate greater than the decrease in consumption of red meat this lead to increase the gap in red meat by annually statistically insignificant amount 3.8%, the rate of self-sufficiency in meat decreased by about 2.1%.

By examining the factors affecting the demand for red meat, it was found that the wholesale price and retail price of red meat increased, by 12.92%, 12.23% respectively .

The retail price of poultry has increased by 9.84%, while the average per- capita of poultry increased by3.46%.

The average per capita income increased by 12.76% through the same period.

Studying the factors affecting the average per capita share of beef and buffalo meat together, found that the most important of these factors are the average retail price of red meat, the average retail price of poultry, the average per capita share of poultry meat , the average of individual income and the population.

It obviously indicated that the Increase in the average retail price of poultry by one pound/kg, the income by one thousand pounds annually, the average per capita consumption of poultry by one kilogram per year, and the population by one million people yearly, each of them separately decrease the amount consumed per capita of red meat (beef and buffalo) by 0.01, 0.08, 0.05, 0.28 and 0.07kg/year, respectively, during the average period (2005-2019).

By studying some indicators of the feasibility of projects, it found that the net revenues estimated at 61.02 thousand pound, the revenues / costs ratio estimated at 1.25, and the project gets its invested capital within Ten months, , and the rate of net return on investment, was 25%.