التنبؤ بالفجوة الغذائية و نسبة الاكتفاء الذاتي للألبان في مصر باستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية المتحركة

الملخص EN

Egypt is currently facing a noticeable increase in the demand of milk and its products, as a result of the population increase, and the limited local production of these products because of the low production efficiency of local livestock.

Hence, therefore, the problem of the study is summarized in the inability of local production of milk in Egypt to meet the increased local consumption, which create a large gap between the production and the consumption of milk, which in turn, led to the dependency on foreign imports to cover the local demand that may badly affects the comprehensive development in the future.

consequently, the study aimed at developing a future scheme of what can be done to decrease the gap between local production and consumption of milk in Egypt, through forecasting the milk gap and self-sufficiency ratio during the few coming years, in order to figure out some procedures and recommendations to improve self-sufficiency rates and to achieve the food security.

To achieve this mentioned goal, the study used both descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis methods, based on the time-series data that published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.

The time trend equations of production, consumption, quantity of imports, food gap and self-sufficiency ratio of milk in Egypt during the period (2005- 2019), indicated that the rates of increasing for the production capacity of milk were better than the local consumption rates, so the milk gap is still below The hoped-for levels to achieve higher rates of milk self-sufficiency in Egypt, which in turn led to an increase in the quantity of milk imports during that period The results of Augmented Dickey Feller (ADF) test indicated that the time series of milk gap and self-sufficiency ratio were unstable in the level, and they have become stable after taking the first differences for each series.

The results of the study also indicated that ARIMA model (2,1,1) was the best model for forecasting the milk gap in Egypt, while the ARIMA model (1,1,2) was the best model for forecasting the self-sufficiency ratio of milk.

Regarding the results of forecasting, the study indicted that the potential expectations for the size of milk gap in Egypt were that it well achieve a noticeable improvement during the period of (2020-2025) compared to its size in the current period.

The average of milk gap is expected to decrease to about 296.3 thousand tons during the period (2020-2025), with an decrease by 364.7 thousand tons out of its average during the period of the study (2005-2019), and with a percentage amounted about 55.2%.

As for self sufficiency ratio of milk in Egypt, the results of forecasting indicated that its average will rise to about 93% during the period of (2020-2025) out of its average (90.1%) during the period of the study (2005-2019), with a percentage amounted about 3.21%.

Consequently therefore, the rusts of forecasting indicated that the coming period is expected to have an improvement in the rates of milk self-sufficiency, but these rates are still below the hoped-for levels.

In the light of the previously mentioned results, the study offered an active necessary scheme, in order to improve the milk production in Egypt.

This scheme is basically depends on some recommendations which represented in making an important reforms at the level of agricultural sector as a whole, including the fields of research and development, investment, importing and exporting, agricultural extension, and financing