دراسة اقتصادية لآثر السياسة السعرية على إنتاج أهم المحاصيل الاستيرادية في مصر

الملخص EN

The research aimed to estimate the impact of the price policy on the production of maize and wheat crops in the Egypt during the period 2005-2018, and the partial equilibrium model was chosen, which is one of the models that can be used to identify some of the results that can appear through the application of a certain policy in the national economy, which enables the measurement of the impact of political interference on the producer, consumer, foreign trade, and government revenues as a result of following these policies, and the impact of this on the efficiency of the use of inputs and outputs, and the economic well-being at the community level.

It was found that despite the increase in the area planted with these crops at a rate of 15.14, 18.58 thousand feddans, representing 0.67%, 0.82% of the annual average, it was found that the amount of imports from them increased by about 310, 315 thousand tons, representing about 5.13%, 5.21% of the annual average.

The estimates of the partial equilibrium model of the corn crop showed that the average net economic loss from production and consumption amounted to about 351.5 and 217.7 million pounds, and the change in the producer’s surplus achieved gains during most of the years of the study, in contrast to the change in the consumer’s surplus that achieved a loss during most of the years of the study.

It was also found that there was fluctuation in achieving losses and gains in government revenue with an annual average of about 1693 million pounds during the study period, while the net economic loss in production and consumption of wheat amounted to about 252.3 and 145.7 million pounds, respectively, and the change in product surplus achieved gains during the study years.

The average change in consumer surplus amounted to about 1651 million pounds, and the average change in government revenue amounted to about 866 million pounds during the study period.

It was found that the values of the food security factor for both maize and wheat are less than the correct one, which reflects the low food security status of these two crops