دراسة التكامل المشترك بين التنويع و المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في المملكة العربية السعودية

الملخص EN

The research aimed to study the relationship between diversification and macroeconomic variables during the period 1970-2019, by using the co-integration analysis.

The study showed the decrease in the value of the Hirfendel-Hirschman coefficient for both GDP and fixed investment, in addition to the decline in the value of the combined economic diversification coefficient, which means that there is a noticeable economic diversification in the Saudi economy during the study period.

It also showed that an increase by 10% in the Hirfendel-Hirschman coefficient (low economic diversification) for both GDP, revenues, exports and employment lead to an increase in the economic growth rate by 50.5%, 12.6%, 27.5% and 8.6% for each respectively.

Economic diversification affected by a set of factors, the most important of which are the ratio of the value of oil production to GDP, the rate of inflation prevailing in the Saudi economy, the capital / output ratio and economic openness.

In order to increase economic diversification and expand the productive base, the study recommends the following: (1) the government continues with economic and structural reforms, and accelerates the privatization process, (2) increases regional economic cooperation, and seeks to attract and encourage foreign direct investment, (3) taking monetary and financial measures that encourage the private sector, on the transfer of some of its assets abroad and investing them in local projects, (4) restoring the regional and activity balance by determining the priority of areas that have comparative advantage and productive activities characterized by a high rate of return on investment, then directing investments and organizing economic resources to the non-oil productive sectors in the Kingdom Saudi Arab.