دراسة اقتصادية لصادرات البرتقال المصرية : بين الواقع و المأمول

الملخص EN

Foreign trade is one of the sources of foreign exchange provision, and it is also considered one of the most important elements of development in the current and future period in Egypt, and it is a hoped-for goal for all developed and developing countries of the world.

The problem of activating export prospects is one of the most important decisions concerned by decision-makers in Egypt, in particular, and all countries of the world.

Recently, the state began to create the appropriate climate to attract foreign markets, as the orange crop is an important export crop.

According to published statistics, the value of Egyptian agricultural exports amounted to about $2.6 billion, equivalent to about 8.8% of the total value of Egyptian exports, which amounted to about $29.5 billion.

While the value of Egyptian orange exports amounted to about $665.8 million, representing about 2.3% of the total value of Egyptian exports, and representing about 25.7% of the total value of Egyptian agricultural exports in 2018.

Where Egyptian orange exports face fierce competition from some countries specialized in the export of oranges, and this is due to some difficulties facing those exports, so the research aims to study and estimate the expected situation for the volume of Egypt’s total exports and Egyptian orange exports, in order to compare between the actual and hoped situation and what it should be "The hoped-for situation" with the most important trading partners during the period under study, in order to reach some results and recommendations that benefit the responsible economic policy makers for developing Egyptian exports of oranges, and trying to open new markets, which increases the flow of foreign currencies to Egypt.

To achieve the goal of the research, the method of descriptive and quantitative analysis was used, in addition to estimating the gravity model in order to explain the Egyptian foreign trade and the volume of trade exchange for the orange crop with the most important trading partners during the period (2001- 2019).

It was shown that the quantity of Egyptian orange exports increased by about 11.86% annually of the average quantity of orange exports as the average period (2014-2018), and it became clear that Egypt occupies the second place in terms of the quantity exported of oranges globally with a relative importance of about 18.1% of the total quantity of global exports of oranges during that period.

During the period, it was found that the most important import markets for Egyptian oranges were concentrated in nine countries, which accounted for about 71.5% of the total amount of Egyptian orange exports to the world.

Saudi Arabia came in the first place, followed by Russia, the Emirates, the Netherlands, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Kuwait, Oman, Malaysia respectively, with relative importance that amounted to about 20.7%, 19.7%, 6%, 5.9%, 5.8%, 5.5%, 2.9%, 2.1%, 1.7%, respectively, of the average quantity of Egyptian exports of the orange crop during the aforementioned period.

Oranges to the most important trading partners in an actual situation better than the hoped-for situation, with an increase rate of about 0.98 million dollars, representing about 0.4% as a general average during the study period.

The Egyptian exports of oranges to Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, UAE, Oman achieved a better actual situation from the situation It is hoped an increase rate of about 35.65, 14.84, 5.13, 8.70, 2.21 million dollars, respectively, representing about 51.1%, 23.5%, 24.7%, 44.2%, 32.3, respectively, as an average during the study period.

While the Egyptian exports of oranges to the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Kuwait and Malaysia did not achieve a better actual situation than the hoped-for situation, with a difference of about 5.33, 58.34, 0.96, 0.92 million dollars, respectively, as an average during the study period.

As for the comparison between the actual and expected values of Egyptian exports from Oranges during the period (2001-2019) indicated that the Egyptian exports of oranges with the most important trading partners achieved an actual situation better than the hoped-for situation, with a difference of about 0.98 million dollars, an increase of about 0.4%.

During the period (2012-2018), no actual situation was better than the hoped-for situation for Egyptian exports of oranges with the most important trading partners, and this may be due to the economic instability during this period.