أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على الصادرات و الواردات الزراعية المصرية

الملخص EN

This paper examined the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural exports and imports in Egypt, in addition to identifying the extent of deviation of the PPP exchange rate from the nominal exchange rate during the period (1990-2019).

Using a proxy expresses the exchange rate volatility generated by the exponential GARCH and GARCH models.

The study did not reveal any significant effect of exchange rate volatility on imports.

In the case of exports, the study concluded a positive effect in the long term.

The results indicate the differential effects of exchange rate fluctuation between agricultural imports and exports in the long run.

He particularly welcomes the positive impact on exports in the long run, especially since Egypt in recent years has adopted a floating exchange rate system as part of economic reforms.

These mixed results seem to complement the evidence in the economic literature that the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade may be an experimental case; However, they may also reflect the ambiguity of theoretical findings in general equilibrium models.

Fluctuations in exchange rate movements may be caused simply by changes in the volatility of policy regimes.

Thus, policies that would help avoid the underlying causes of exchange rate fluctuations may be considered more desirable than policies aimed at directly mitigating exchange rate fluctuations for the purposes of trade expansion.

The unimpressive trade performance may be partly attributed to macroeconomic shocks.

Hence, exchange rate fluctuations may not necessarily have significant positive effects on trade.

However, optimal control of fiscal and monetary shocks to support growth may also provide a stable economic environment for trade to flourish.