الأهمية الاقتصادية للتجارة الخارجية : بين مصر و دول الكوميسا

الملخص EN

The percentage of trade and agricultural exchange between Egypt and COMESA countries was about 2%.

3.13% of the volume of trade and agricultural exchange between Egypt and the world.

and for the percentage of Egyptian agricultural exports and imports to and from COMESA countries.

it reached about 1.7%.

3.

68% of the value of Egyptian agricultural exports and imports to the world.

Research problem is represented in the decrease in the volume of trade and agricultural exchange between Egypt and COMESA countries despite the existence of many trade agreements between them.

and the weakness of the volume of foreign direct investments.

with the trade balance biased.

especially in favor of COMESA countries.

The research aims to study the economic importance of foreign trade between Egypt and COMESA countries and how to benefit from joining those countries.

with an analysis of the effect of the GDP.

foreign direct investments.

and geographical distance on the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and COMESA countries during the period (2004-2019).

The research relied on the two methods of statistical analysis (descriptive and quantitative).

with an estimation of some economic variables used for the parts of the research.

including the estimation of the Gravity Model.

which uses the regression method of sectional data and time series Panel data during the period (2004-2019) .

The data showed that the total value of Egyptian exports and imports to and from COMESA countries took a general.

statistically significant increase at an annual rate of about 165.50.

34.30 million$.

with a growth rate estimated at 12.44%.

5.47%.

It also became an increase in that investment by one million $ leads to an increase in the GDP by 21.8 million $.

The revised coefficient of determination was about 0.373.

From the evaluation of the basic gravity model of the Egyptian agricultural exports of the six countries under study about 71% of the changes in Egypt's agricultural exports to those countries.

and the model's significance statistically proven at a level of 0.01 significance according to the (F) test.

estimated at 46.04.

As it was evident from the estimation of the modified gravity model for agricultural exports.

an increase in the GDP of these countries by about 1%.

the Egyptian agricultural exports increase by about 2.38.

One thousand tons.

and the value of the modified determination coefficient about 0.72.

The value of (F) reached about 49.51.

the significance of the model was statistically proven at Level of significance 0.

01.

By estimating the main attractiveness model of agricultural imports.

about 81% of the changes occurring in Egypt's agricultural imports from those countries.

and the model's significance was statistically proven according to the (F) test.

estimated at 74.64.

and the volume of Egypt's agricultural imports from those Countries.

with an increase in Egypt's GDP by about 1%.

increasing Egypt's agricultural imports from those countries by about 2.31 thousand tons.

It also became the GDP of these countries increases by about 1%.

Egypt's agricultural imports from those countries decrease by 0.92 thousand tons.

as well as the value of the modified determination coefficient was about 0.79.

and the overall model was significant according to the (F) test.

estimated at 75.72.

at 0.01 level of significance.

The research recommends encouraging a balanced and coherent production and marketing structure among COMESA member states to achieve sustainable development among them.

And cooperation in creating a suitable environment for local.

foreign.

and interest in providing advanced means of transportation equipped with the latest modern scientific technologies.

and working to open new markets for Egyptian products with COMESA cluster.

while preserving the already existing markets.