تحليل اقتصادي لأثر تحرير سعر الصرف على سياسات إنتاج المحاصيل السكرية في مصر

الملخص EN

The study aimed to identify the effect of liberalizing the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound on the policies adopted by the state towards the producers of sugar cane and sugar beet crops.

in terms of being a protectionist policy or a tax policy aimed at collecting direct or indirect taxes from producers during the study periods before and after liberalizing the exchange rate of the pound.

and comparing The effect of these policies on the production of the two crops during them.

and drawing conclusions with the aim of improving the conditions.

environment and productive policies of sugar crops.

using the indicators of the policy analysis matrix.

indicators of absolute competitiveness.

relative competitiveness.

and standards of economic protection.

The study was divided into two time periods.

the first period (2014-2015).

which refers to the two years preceding the year of exchange rate liberalization in November 2016.

and the second period (2017-2018).

which refers to the two years following the year of exchange rate liberalization.

Among the most important findings of the study: The financial profit criterion indicates that the absolute advantage of both crops is higher during the second period.

and the sugarcane production has an absolute advantage over the sugar beet production during the two periods according to the agricultural season and the average monthly profits.

and the economic profits criterion indicates that the production inputs are used more efficiently during the second period.

After the liberalization of the exchange rate in the production of the two crops.

and that the production of the sugarcane crop is more efficient in using and employing the production elements during the two periods according to the agricultural season.

the production of the sugar beet crop is more efficient in using and employing the production elements during the two periods according to the monthly economic profits.

The criterion of transfers of tradable inputs indicates that sugar cane producers were paying lower prices for tradable production components than their counterparts at world prices during the first period before the exchange rate liberalization by about 2%.

meaning that they received subsidies with that percentage.

and during the second period they were paying for those items at higher prices than Their counterparts at world prices and switched to paying implicit taxes of about 2% after the exchange rate liberalization.

As for the sugar beet producers.

they paid lower prices for tradable production components than their counterparts at international prices.

meaning that they received support during the first and second periods by about 10% and about 9%.

respectively.

Environmental and social impact: The criterion of economic profits indicates that the production inputs are used more efficiently during the second period after the liberalization of the exchange rate in the production of the two crops.

and that the production of the sugarcane crop is more efficient in using and employing the production elements during the two periods according to the agricultural season.

However.

the production of the sugar beet crop is more efficient in The use and employment of production elements during the two periods according to the monthly economic profits.

so the area planted in the first should be preserved and the second supplemented with less water consumption should be expanded.

as the cultivation of sugarcane in Egypt is largely concentrated around the sugar factories in Upper Egypt.

representing about 77% of the cane area Sugar in Egypt and Central Egypt is about 15%.

followed by the Delta by about 8%.

the economy in Upper Egypt depends heavily on it.

as about 200.000 families depend on sugar cane production.

and given the average family size of 5.3 people.

more than a million people depend directly on sugar cane production.

another 300.000 families depend on auxiliary businesses to produce sugar.

The reed is interested in the stability of its industry Recommendations and implementation mechanisms: Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation: Sugar cane and sugar beet are among the strategic crops that Egypt needs.

The study recommends preserving the areas planted with sugar cane and expanding the cultivation of sugar beet.

Reducing the prices of traded production inputs and raising the implicit taxes on both chemical fertilizers.

seeds and pesticides.

as well as the costs of local resources that include land services.

machine work.

human work.

municipal fertilizer and other expenses for sugar cane producers.

and increasing subsidies for sugar beet producers.

Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade: The study recommends setting a fair price for the supply of sugarcane to preserve the cultivated areas and reassessing the policy of direct and indirect support for sugarcane farmers.

which shrank greatly.

especially after the liberalization of the exchange rate.

as the nominal protection factor for the outputs and the standard of net transfers of the sugarcane crop decreased after the flotation while the producers lost Sugar beet crop subsidy after the exchange rate liberalization.

Ministry of Commerce and Industry: With regard to the dilemma of synchronization and duplication of stagnant stocks and the food gap.

and the support of some countries in the production and export of sugar.

the study recommends confronting the policies of dumping the local market with white sugar from the global market with a temporary ban on importing it in order to preserve the national industry in light of the fluctuations of world sugar prices while monitoring the stock through methods.

Modern Information Technology and Intervention to lift the temporary ban long before the stock falls below the safe limit.

and it is also recommended to improve and update production methods.

production lines and packaging to ensure that consumer demand for the national product increases and replaces the imported product.