الوضع الحالي و المستقبلي للفجوة الغذائية السكرية في مصر

الملخص EN

Sugar is considered one of the most important strategic commodities in Egypt because it is considered one of the essential food commodities for the Egyptian consumer.

and it is also included in many food industries.

Therefore.

sugar production and its manufacture are of interest to Egyptian economic policy makers due to the added value it creates and the labor and investments it absorbs.

Among the most important sources of sugar in Egypt are the cane and sugar beet crops.

Despite the importance of sugar.

local production does not meet the consumption needs of it.

and thus the sugar gap appears.

which the state resorts to importing from abroad to fill that gap.

The study aimed to identify the current and future situation and the nutritional gap of sugar in Egypt.

by studying the production and consumption of sugar.

one of its most important sources.

namely the sugar cane and sugar beet crops.

In presenting and analyzing the data.

the study relied on the quantitative and descriptive methods represented in some measures of dispersion and central tendency such as averages and others.

And percentages and the argumentative presentation of proportional comparisons.

The estimation of the annual growth rate.

in addition to the prediction calculation using ARIMA for the variables under study.

The study also relied on secondary data published by official authorities such as the Central Agency for the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation.

The data on the variables related to the study were used during the period (1998- 2017) and were divided into four periods according to the five-year development plans of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation as follows: the first period (1998-2002).

the second period (2003-3007).

the third period (2008- 2012).

fourth period (2013-2017).

The geometric average and growth rate were also calculated for each period (five years).

as well as for the total period studied.

And that for all the variables of the study separately.

The study reached several results.

the most important of which are: 1- By studying the production of sugar cane crop in Egypt during the period (1998- 2017).

it was found that the average cultivated area of sugarcane was about 321.12 thousand feddans.

with an annual growth rate of about 1%.

The total production of the cane crop was about 15.81 million tons.

By studying beet production in Egypt during the studied period.

it was found that the cultivated area of sugar beet amounted to about 249.79 thousand feddans.

with an annual growth rate of about 8%.

The total production of the cane crop was about 15.81 million tons.

The period was also characterized by relative stability in the production of cane and beet crops.

2- By studying the current situation of the sugar gap during the same period.

it was found that there was a sugar gap during the period (1998-2017).

whether from cane sugar or beet sugar.

but that the gap of beet sugar decreases significantly compared to its equivalent in cane sugar.

3- By calculating the forecast of the future status of the sugar gap during the period (2018-2027).

it was found that the gap of cane sugar increases during the study period.

but that the gap of beet sugar disappears and is replaced by a surplus during the forecast years.

However.

it is expected that there will be a sugar gap from both cane sugar and beet sugar.

because the local production of them together does not meet the consumption needs in Egypt during the projection period.