تحليل السياسات الزراعية لأهم محاصيل الحبوب في مصر

الملخص EN

The agricultural production and price policy is one of the important tools for causing appropriate effects to increase agricultural production, its ability to direct farmers towards the production of a particular crop, especially wheat, which is the most important winter crop, and my maize and rice crops are the most important summer crops, as wheat is the main food for the population in addition to adopting many Among the food industries it is, as its production reached about 8.42 million tons, representing about 48.34% of the available consumption, and the production of maize reached about 7.82 million tons, representing about 54.22% in 2017, and for rice, it is considered one of the export crops.

The value of exports amounted to 223 thousand tons, representing about 2.35% of the total available for use, which amounted to about 5.26 million tons in 2017.

Price distortions in the market of production elements of the agricultural sector lead to many problems that hinder its development and resist the required role, and statistics indicate a decrease in the total production of wheat crops.

Maize, rice about 8.4, 7.8, and 5.3 million tons, respectively, in 2017, the study aims to measure the impact of price distortions between local and international prices of the most important cereal crops in Egypt during the period 2000-2017, through an analysis of agricultural policies of the most important cereal crops in Egypt.

The most recent agricultural policy analysis methods were used as the policy analysis matrix and partial equilibrium model, and the research relied on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, in addition to using the data contained in many studies, research and messages related to the subject of the research.

The most important research findings were as follows: 1- The effect factor of the international price per ton of wheat, maize, and rice crops as an independent variable on the farm price for the same crops as a dependent variable was about 10.53, 1.15, and 8.29 pounds, respectively, which means that when the global price of the aforementioned crops changes by one pound, this leads To the change in the farm price by about 10.53, 1.15, and 8.29 pounds, respectively, as it was found that the coefficient of the production cost per ton of the previous crops mentioned as an independent variable on the farm price as a dependent variable amounted to about 0.44 0.05, 0.37 pounds, respectively, which means that when the cost of production per ton changes For wheat with one pound, this leads to a change in the price of meat She nursed about 0.44, 0.05 and 0.37 pounds, respectively.

2- By studying the items of feddan production costs assessed financially and economically for wheat, maize and rice crops, it was revealed that the financial evaluation of workers ’wages outweighs the economic evaluation of all crops, and this means that workers’ wages rise locally from them globally.

For production requirements (seeds, chemical fertilizers, pesticides) it turns out that the financial evaluation is less than economic for these items for the study crops, and this indicates that these items are supported by the state.

3- By studying the acres yielded at the border prices, the resident yield exceeds that of the farmer for wheat, maize and rice crops during the study period, due to the discrepancy between the farm prices and the border prices used to estimate the yield.

4- The nominal protection factor for production of wheat, maize, and rice crops reached about 0.75 0.78 0.76, respectively, which indicates the absence of a fair production policy during that period, given the low value of this factor from the correct one, indicating that the government did not take protective measures in favor of The producers of these crops consisted of increasing the border price over the farm price.

5- The nominal protection coefficient of production requirements for wheat, maize and rice crops was about 0.88, 0.90 and 0.86, respectively, indicating a decrease in support for production requirements for the aforementioned crops.

6- The effective protection factor for wheat, maize, and rice crops reached about 0.73, 0.82, and 0.77, respectively, indicating that there are implicit taxes on the producers of these crops, or in other words, the low value added at local prices from their global counterparts, indicating that the state imposes on Producers of these crops may have taxes, direct or indirect.

7- The coefficient of the cost of local resources for wheat, maize and rice crops amounted to 0.41 0.48 and 0.41, respectively, which indicates a comparative advantage in the production of these crops and that domestic production is better than relying on importing it from abroad.

8- The total realized financial revenues for the wheat crop amounted to about 6254.06 pounds per acre, which is less than the economic value for those revenues at border prices by about 28.84%, where the economic value of these revenues amounted to about 8789.23 pounds an acre.

While the realized financial revenues of the maize crop amounted to about 5465.78 pounds per acre, which is also less than the economic value assessed for these revenues at the border prices by about 17.20% as the economic value of these revenues amounted to 6600.87 pounds per acre, while the rice crop has achieved the financial revenues achieved for this crop by about 6306.67 Pounds per acre, which is also less than the economic value of those revenues at border prices by about 49.48%, as the economic value of these revenues amounted to about 12482.55 pounds per acre, which indicates that the producers of those crops were charging a local price lower than its counterpart B Border rates.

9- The value of the cost of the local non-commercial resources for the wheat crop was estimated at about 2929.85 pounds per acre, which is more than the economic cost by about 11.03%, which amounted to about 2638.82 pounds per acre, while the value of the cost of the local non-commercial resources of the maize crop was estimated at 2698.63 pounds per acre which is It exceeds the economic cost by about 18.15%, which amounted to about 2,284.02 pounds per acre.

As for the rice crop, the value of the cost of local non-commercial resources is estimated at about 3393.05 pounds per acre, which is more than the economic cost by about 12.43%, which amounted to about 3017.96 pounds per acre.

T local resources is negative about 291.03, 414.61, 375.09 pounds per acre for wheat, maize and rice, respectively, the return of the approach can be the value of the cost of local resources, nonreciprocal trade for those crops of economic value with its importance Kmahasil strategy to achieve food.

10- The net redemption yield of wheat crop amounted to about 2644.54 pounds per acre, which is about 50.28% less than that of economic value.

About 50.19% compared to its economic value counterpart, where the economic value of the net acre yield reached 5498.85, while the net acre yield of the rice crop was estimated at 10932.89 pounds per acre, which is about 28.73% less than its economic value, where the economic value of the net family Feddan about 15339.87 pounds per acre for wheat, maize and rice, respectively, which confirms that the producers of those crops were paid a local price lower than at the border, and thus hold them for the tax implicit is the difference between the net denominated earnings at local rates and counterpart rectifie at the border 11- The elasticity of supply at farm prices of wheat, maize, and rice crops was estimated at 0.196, 0.045, -0.092, respectively, and for the elasticity of supply at world prices for the above mentioned crops, it was estimated at 0.289, 0.052, - 0.088, respectively, while demand elasticity in prices Al-Mazriya for the above crops was about 0.321, 0.247, 0.436, respectively, and the elasticity of demand in the world prices of the aforementioned crops was estimated at 0.474, 0.180 and 0.330, respectively.

12- The average net economic loss of the product from the crops of wheat, maize, and rice was estimated at 167.0, 51.42, 15.00 million pounds respectively, while the average net economic loss of the consumer to the previous crops was about 102.00 282.23 and 71.08 million pounds respectively, and the average Community net loss for the aforementioned crops is about 231.70 333.7, 86.08 million pounds, respectively.

13- The average loss in the surplus of the product from wheat, maize, and rice crops amounted to 7340.1, 6775.6, 4249.51 million pounds, respectively, and the average loss in the consumer surplus of the aforementioned crops was estimated at 12328.3, 12367.6 and 2833.94 million pounds, respectively.

14- The country's gains indicate a decline in the proceeds of government revenues on imports of crops of wheat, corn, rice, about -1634.7, -1587.3, - 636.46 million pounds, respectively, and a loss is achieved in the foreign exchange earnings of the aforementioned crops by about 1634.7, -2415.8, - 2607.94 million pounds, respectively.

15- The net economic gain of wheat, maize and rice crops reached about 16346.9, 17221.9 and 6533.07 million pounds, respectively.