دراسة تحليلية لاستهلاك القمح في مصر

الملخص EN

Despite the various efforts made by the Egyptian agricultural sector to increase wheat production.

due to the strategic importance it represents in the Egyptian diet.

which led to a tangible increase in both the cultivated area and the domestic production of wheat.

but the amount of imports of wheat more than doubled during the period 2000-2018.

The research aims mainly to study each of the development of productive and economic phenomena affecting wheat consumption in Egypt and try to build a standard model to describe and analyze the effect of these phenomena on wheat consumption in Egypt during the period 2000-2018 as well as trying to predict the production.

consumption and imports of wheat until 2022.

According to the research objective and the nature of the data.

a descriptive analysis method was used the quantitative analysis and interpretation of the results as well as the use of simultaneous equations.

which were estimated using the three-stage least squares method (3SLS).

The research relied on published and unpublished secondary statistical data.

The most important findings of the research were the following: 1- The results of estimating the multiple equations standard model equations showed that the amount of domestic production of wheat increased by amounts amounting to about 0.007.

2.66.

2922.6.

0.007 thousand tons annually as the quantity of wheat consumption.

the area cultivated with wheat.

the yield per feddan of wheat.

the actual farm price per ton of wheat increased by the unit amount for each of them.

respectively.

and decreasing by about 0.007 thousand tons annually as the quantity of wheat imports increased by unit.

during the period under study.

2- The results also showed that the amount of wheat consumption is increasing by amounts that amounted to about 0.396.

0.647.

271.4.

9.72.

177.2 thousand tons annually.

as each of the local production increased.

The amount of wheat imports.

the value of wheat subsidies at real prices.

the real national income.

the population of Egypt by the unit each of them.

respectively.

and it decreases by about 10.3 thousand tons annually the actual import price increased by unit.

during the period under study.

3- While the results showed that the quantity of wheat imports increased by amounts amounted to about 0.874.

0.572.

320.2 thousand tons annually as the amount of domestic production of wheat.

the amount of wheat consumption.

and the exchange rate increased by the unit amount for each of them.

respectively.

and decreasing by amounts amounted to about 1.564.

6.55 thousand tons.

Tons annually whenever the quantity of the stock of wheat increases.

the actual import price by the unit amount for each of them.

respectively.

during the period under study.

4- The results indicated that domestic production.

consumption.

and wheat imports are expected to reach about 10025.13.

23268.26.

12434.21 thousand tons for each of them.

respectively.

in the year 2022.

Considering the above.

the research concluded with some recommendations that can be summarized as follows: 1- The necessity of working to increase the domestic production of wheat by intensifying research and extension efforts to achieve a tangible increase in the productivity of an acre of wheat.

reviving the role of agricultural cooperatives in providing production requirements at reasonable prices.

2- The necessity to rationalize the consumption of wheat by modifying the policies related to subsidizing bread and limiting it to the beneficiaries in order to reduce the volume of waste and modify the prevailing dietary pattern.