دراسة اقتصادية لإنتاج و استهلاك بعض المنتجات الحيوانية في مصر

الملخص EN

The animal production sector is considered one of the important productive sectors in the agricultural sector in which food security and agricultural development is achieved as the main source of animal protein necessary for human food.

The research aimed to identify the current situation of production and consumption of animal products in Egypt and to estimate the size of the food gap and the percentage of self-sufficiency, In addition to studying the most important factors affecting the production and consumption of animal products in Egypt, and estimating the size of the surplus or deficit in the strategic stock, and measure the food security coefficient for (red meat, fish, and milk) during the study period (2000-2016).

The results showed that the size of the gap of red meat and fish took an increasing general trend, as the annual increase in the gap reached about 28.9, 8.6 thousand tons each, respectively, representing about 8.7%, 3.6% of the average gap during the study period.

While the size of the milk gap took a decreasing general trend, as the annual decrease in the gap reached about 12.3 thousand tons, representing about 1.4% of its average during the study period.

And by studying the most important factors affecting the production and consumption of both red meat, fish and milk during the study period, it was found that there is a direct relationship between the quantity produced of red meat and both the number of animal units per thousand units (x١), the amount of dry feed per thousand tons (x3), As the increase of each factor separately by 1%, this leads to an increase in the production of red meat by 0.997%, 0.869% respectively.

As it was found that there is a direct relationship between the quantity consumed of red meat and each of the population in one million people (x1), the quantity imports of red meat per thousand tons (x7), As the increase of each worker separately by 1%, this leads to an increase in the consumption of red meat by 1.125% and 0.208% respectively.

The results also showed that there is a direct relationship between the quantity produced of fish and each of the number of motorized fishing boats per unit (x1), the average wholesale price per thousand pounds / ton (x3), As the increase of each worker separately by the unit, this leads to an increase in fish production by 0.224, 42.6 thousand tons, respectively.

As it was found that there is a direct relationship between the quantity consumed of fish and both the average retail price of red meat, pounds / kg (x4), the quantity of fish imports per thousand tons (x6), As the increase of each worker separately by the unit, this leads to an increase in fish consumption by 11.34 and 1.03 thousand tons, respectively.

The results also indicated that there is a direct relationship between the quantity produced of milk and each of the quantity of green fodder per thousand tons (x2), the price of the total milk pounds / kg (x3), Since each factor increases by 1% separately, this leads to an increase in milk production by 0.893% and 0.373%, respectively.

Also, it was found that there is a direct relationship between the quantity consumed of milk and the average per capita income per year (x2), as the increase in the individual income by 1%, this leads to an increase in milk consumption by 0.426%, It was also found that there is an inverse relationship between the quantity consumed of milk and the price of the retail of milk pounds / kg (x3), Since the decrease in the milk price by 1%, this leads to an increase in milk consumption by 0.703%.

By estimating the size of the strategic stock of red meat and milk during the study period, it was found that there was no strategic stock, This is due to the fact that the quantity of the deficit is greater than the quantity of the surplus by about 610, 47.7 thousand tons for each, respectively, during the study period, By estimating the size of the strategic stock of fish, it was found that the quantity of the surplus exceeds the quantity of the deficit, and this stock amounted to 65.72 thousand tons, which is sufficient for domestic consumption for a period of about 17.5 days.

With an estimate of the food security coefficient of red meat and milk, it was estimated to be - 0.49 ,- 0.007 each, respectively, during the study period, and this indicates that the value of the food security coefficient is less than zero, which reflects the lack of food security for each of them.

While the food security coefficient of fish was estimated at 0.04 during the study period, this indicates that the value of the food security coefficient is close to zero, which indicates a decrease in the food security situation of fish.

The study recommends the necessity of expanding animal production and fish farming projects to increase local production and bridge the gap of animal protein.

This results in an increase in the size of the strategic stock of animal products, so that domestic consumption is sufficient for a period of no less than six months to achieve food security of animal products in Egypt.