دراسة إقتصادية للوضع الراهن للأمن الغذائي لأهم المحاصيل الزراعية في مصر

الملخص EN

Food security is considered one of the most important issues at the Arabic and global level due to impacts it has on the economic, political , and social dimensions.

This research aims to recognition of the current situation to the most important strategic crops (wheat, beans, sugar and vegetable oil) and recognition of their production and consumption capacities in addition to estimating the coverage of production and imports to domestic consumption needs, and measuring the surplus/shortage in strategic stocks over the period 2000-2016.

The results have clarified the increasing in the gap of wheat , sugar and vegetable oil annually significantly statistically by rates estimated at 335.8 , 44.65 , 43.1 thousand tons representing 5% , 7.5% , 5.3% of the annual averages variables respectively while decreasing in the gap of beans and the annual gap decreased by a rate which reached about 17.65 thousand tons representing 5.1% of the annual averages variables during the period of the study.

And it is clearly shown from the study of wheat,beans,sugar and vegetable oil consumption function during the study period that the relation between the consumed amount of wheat and each of the population in one million people (X1), the amount of production of wheat in thousand tons (X3) and the amount of imports of wheat in thousand tons (X5) is directly propotional The study also have shown the the relation between the consumed amount of beans and both of the amount of production of beans in thousand tons (X3) and the amount of imports of beans in thousand tons (X5) is directly propotional as the increase of each factor separately by the unit leads to increasing in beans consumption by rate 0.953 , 0.988 thousand tons respectively as it is shown the inverse relationship between the amount of consumed beans and their retail price in pounds/kg (X4) .

As the results showed that the relation between the consumed amount of sugar and each of the population in one million people (X1), the individual income (X2) and the amount of imports of sugar in thousand tons (X5) is directly propotional as the increase of ech factor by 1% leads to the increase in consumption of sugar by rate 2.08% , 4.91% , 1.18% respectively And the results showed the direct relationship between the consumed amount of vegetable oil and both the amount of its production in thousand ton (X3) and the amount of its imports in thousand ton (X5) , as the increase in each factor by 1% leads to increase in vegetable oil consumption by rate 0.306% , 0.701% respectively.

By estimating the size of strategic stock of wheat,beans and vegetable oil during the study period it has been showed the existence of strategic stock , because the quantity of surplus exceeds the shortage by about 814.84 , 17.08 , 171.98 thousand tons which is enough to cover the local consumption for a period reached about 20.61 , 10.4 , 64.4 days for each one respectively and by estimating the size of strategic stock of sugar, it has been showed the lack of strategic stock of sugar which is because the shortage is larger than the surplus quantity by about 98.96 thousand ton which demands the country to work on providing strategic stock of sugar.

With an estimate of the food security coefficient of wheat, beans and vegetable oil estimated by 0.05 , 0.02 , 0.17 for each of them respectively during the study period and this points to that the value of the food security coefficient approaches zero which refers to decreasing the situation of food security for wheat , beans and vegetable oil , and the food security coefficient of sugar was estimated about- 0.04 during the study period and this refers to that the value of security coefficient is less than zero which reflects the absence of food security situation of sugar so it is important to work with the government to increase the food security coefficient of sugar.

And the study recommends the importance of expanding in agriculture of crops in the study and development of high-yield varieties and food consumption reduction of the individual and this to form accumulation in the strategic stock to be enough for the local consumption to reach the food security of all the crops in the study.