تقييم التغيرات الهيكلية و توزيع الإستثمارات في الإقتصاد السعودي

الملخص EN

This research aimed to assess the structural changes and the distribution of investments in the Saudi economy during economic development plans, by using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient and statistically test its significance, in addition to estimating the partial adjustment model.

This study relied on achieving its objectives on the published secondary data issued by the General Authority for Statistics and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency.

The most important results of the study are: (1) Spearman rank correlation coefficients between development plans are positively and statistically significant, meaning that structural changes in the Saudi economy were not significant during development plans, (2) the private sector accounted for 51.63% of total investments, and its contribution to the gross domestic product reached 38.72%, the government sector accounted for 35.88% of the total investments, and its contribution to the GDP reached 17.79%.

As for the oil sector, it accounted for 12.31% of the total investments, and contributed about 42.46% of the GDP, (3) The investment multiplier indicates an increase in fixed investments by one million riyals, which leads to an increase in the GDP of the oil sector and the private and governmental sectors by 12.43, 3.27 and 5.59 million riyals, respectively, (4) The re-orientation of fixed investments in the private and government sectors expanded the production base, but it is accompanied by a decrease in the expected income for investments due to the low value of the investment multiplier in the private sector, (5) To expand the production base and protect the Saudi economy from the risks of low oil prices, the study recommends the following: (a) The necessity of increasing the multiples of investment in the private sector by localizing technology and increasing production and productivity, (b) restoring the regional and active balance by prioritizing the regions Which are characterized by the comparative advantage and productive activities that are characterized by a high rate of return on investment, then directing investments and mobilizing economic resources for the non-oil productive sectors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia