تقيم وضع الأمن الغذائي وفقا لمؤشرات الأداء داخل قطاع الزراعة المصري

الملخص EN

The agricultural sector is cornerstone on which the Egyptian national economy depends on achieving comprehensive development because of its vital and effective role within the economic activity.

It is the main objective of the agriculture sector which seeks to achieve food security in its comprehensive perspective.

The agriculture sector is primarily responsible for reducing the food gap and seeking selfsufficiency in strategic goods.

In spite of the crucial role played by the agricultural sector.

this vital sector has not received sufficient attention during the last decade.

this has negatively affected its contribution to achieving the desired economic objectives.

especially with regard to food security.

Moreover.

the agricultural sector in Egypt faces many local and external challenges that affect the achievement of the desired agricultural development.

The study relied on the descriptive and quantitative economic analysis methods to analyze time series data during the period from 2000 to 2017 then using ARIMA model to predict the future of food gap in Egypt during the period from 2018 to 2030.

The results showed that the agricultural sector is unable to meet the growing food needs of the population by estimating the food gap in Egypt that the value of food production reached $38 billion in 2017 and that the value of food production took an upward trend by $1.70 billion annually.

it is estimated at 7.1% annually of the average value of food production estimated at about $23.8 billion during the study period.

The value of food consumption reached $48.9 billion in 2017.

It has been shown that the value of food consumption has taken an upward trend by $22.2 billion annually.

an increase of about 7.4% annually from the average value of food consumption estimated at about $29.9 billion and thus the food gap is estimated $11.1 billion in 2017.

It was predicted the amount and value of the food gap in Egypt during the period (2018-2030) that Egypt will have a food gap of about 25 million tons valued at $14 billion on average for the forecast period (2018 -2030) where the food gap is expected to reach about 29 million tons worth $17 billion in 2030.

While the food gap in Egypt was estimated at 16 million tons with an average value of $6 billion for the period (2000-2017).

The food gap in 2017 reached about 23 million tons worth $10 billion.

which means that the food gap in Egypt is expected to increase by about $7 billion in the next 13 years during the period (2018-2030).

According to the results obtained.

the most important recommendations came out is about the necessity of vertical and horizontal expansion.

adopting favorable policies for agricultural investment.

relying on policies with institutional reforms within the agricultural sector.

reallocating available agricultural resources to raise production efficiency.

This aims to improve performance levels through the development of an appropriate strategy for sustainable agricultural development in the form of policies that reduce the food gap by increasing the active participation of the agricultural sector in the Egyptian national economy