دراسة اقتصادية لبعض محددات استجابة عرض محصول الأرز في مصر

الملخص EN

The aim of this research is to estimate and analyze the response of rice supply in Egypt.

By identifying the most influential determinants on the area under cultivation of this crop and to know whether there is a long-term relationship between them or not.

In addition to estimating the degree of responsiveness of farmers and the elasticity of supply in both the short and long term.

The results of the study when estimating the width of rice crop Response model that the real price of rice crop a year with a period of slow down a positive relationship and statistically significant.

reaching about 0:28 value is in line with economic logic.

This demonstrates the rationality of farmers in responding to the price increase by increasing the cultivated area in the following year.

Whereas for the real price of the cotton crop with a slowing period of one year.

the relationship was negative.

indicating the inverse relationship between the price of cotton in the previous year and the area planted with rice for the following year.

This is consistent with the economic logic and competitive nature of the two crops.

but it is not statistically confirmed.

Where the value of about - 0.02.

Whereas the relationship between the real price of maize crop with a slow period of one year reflected that it is statistically negative and significant.

This indicates the inverse relationship between the price of maize in the previous year as a competitive crop and the area planted with rice for the following year.

which amounted to about 0.148.

With regard to the amount of water used for rice crop.

the results show a positive relationship between the amount of water used and the area planted with rice.

where a value of about 0.546 It has been statistically significant.

When studying the elasticity of farmers' response to rice cultivation in the short and long term.

calculated by the error correction model in the model of the variables involved during the study period.

It was found that the elasticity of the cultivated area of rice crop to change in price was about 0.285.

which means that the increase of rice price by 10% leads to increase the cultivated area by (2.8%) in the short term and about (6.4%) in the long term.

While was the Transit flexibility of rice with the competing price of maize was (-0.148).

the increase in the real price of maize by 10% leads to a decrease in the area planted with rice by (0.15%) in the short term and by (2.1%) in the long term.

However.

the response of the rice crop to the change in the quantity of water used was about 0.546.

which means that the increase of irrigation water used by 10% leads to an increase of the area under rice by (5.5%) in the short term and by (9.1%) in the long term.

A review of the elasticity found that they were all less than one.

which means that the width of the rice crop is described as inelastic.

Recommendations: - Given the importance of short- and long-term supply elasticity as an important indicator of sound agricultural policy development.

the low supply elasticity of the study results (less than one) are high enough for agricultural reforms that contribute to reducing the reduction of the cultivation of this important crop.

- Activating the legislation related to violations of rice cultivation in areas not specified for cultivation.

taking into account the lands that are suitable only for the cultivation of this crop as a result of high ground water.

- Increased attention to productivity and agricultural price of maize to be more competitive and partially replace rice.