دراسة اقتصادية لأثر السياسات الزراعية على محصول القمح في مصر

الملخص EN

The research deals with measuring the impact of agricultural policies for wheat in Egypt, through study of production, consumption, imports, prices of wheat, wholesale and retail, measurement of policy matrix analysis, calculation of nominal protection factors for production, nominal protection of input, effective protection, cost of domestic resources, proportion of government subsidies to producers, support cost policy coefficient during the average period (2000-2018).

Analysis of the partial equilibrium model of wheat , calculation of nominal protection factors, effective, net social returns and loss, on producer and consumer, distributional effects of producers and consumers, total government revenues, foreign exchange earnings for the wheat during the average period (2000-2018).

It also deals with estimating the marketing efficiency, distribution of consumer Egyptian pound for the wheat during the average period (2000-2018), estimating the consumption demand function, external import function of wheat, forecasting the gap of wheat until 2025, through the four standard models: Increase in demand, straight line model of trend equations, Braun singleparameter model for the double-sided exponential smoothing, Holt double-sided model for the double-sided exponential smoothing.

In order to identify the impact of agricultural policy on the wheat , the study period (2000-2018) was divided into two time periods, the first period is in the period before the revolution and exchange rate liberalization policies (2000-2010), while the second period is in the post-revolution period and exchange rate liberalization policies (2011-2018), while the results of development of prices shows the increasing in the prices of producer, wholesale, consumer of wheat by about 220.8%, 229.9%, 209.5% during the period policies Second about the first period of study.

Research Recommendations: 1- Rationalize the consumption of wheat and flour; spread the experiment of mixing wheat flour with corn flour to produce bread.

2- Encouraging farmers to increase the cultivated area and cultivate high-yielding varieties, which leads to improved food security of wheat, where the self sufficiency rate during the second period of the study showed a decrease of about 16.4% from the first period.

3- Taking into account the social dimension, the negative effects of agricultural policies, where it was found that these policies have a positive impact on wheat crop, especially on the production side, consumption, total social returns, distributional effects of producers, government revenues and foreign exchange earnings, while the implementation of these policies, Negative impact on the distributional effects of wheat consumers during the two study periods.

4- The necessity to take the necessary measures to maintain the wheat stockpile and develop policies related to increasing production and decreasing the import of wheat, where the period of production adequacy for consumption decreased by about 16.4% during the second period from the first period, where shows the second period is a period of greater withdraw from the strategic stock.

5- Developing policies aimed at decreasing the import of wheat, where the results of the forecast in 2025 shows it is expected that there will be an increase in the production and consumption of wheat, representing about 20.5% and 21% respectively from 2018, therefore the target of policies will be rationalize consumption of wheat .