دراسة اقتصادية للطلب الخارجي للعنب المصري في الأسواق العالمية

الملخص EN

Summary and recommendations Developing Egyptian exports in general.

and agricultural in particular.

is an urgent challenge facing Egyptian economy.

The Egyptian agricultural sector is one of the major economic sectors that could play a crucial role in facing international conditions and variations.

The research problem is that grapes represent a proportion of domestic production and agricultural exports.

because it faces fierce competition in global markets.

The research aims at studying productive and exporting situation and the geographic distribution of grape exports in international markets in the period 2000-2018.

and estimating the optimum demand on exports.

as well as some competitiveness indices.

Results showed the following: - Studying the productive situation of grape showed that the area.

the productivity.

and total production significantly increase by 2.061%.

.401%.

and 2.41% of the average per each variable respectively in the period.

- It was shown that the value of agricultural exports and imports.

and the agricultural balance deficit took a general significantly increasing trend.

Egyptian grape exports represent 4.67% of the agricultural exports for the period average.

The instability coefficient for the production.

quantity.

value.

and price of exporting Egyptian grapes was around 4.53%.

22.03%.

35.23%.1 4.24%.

respectively.

- The geographic distribution of Egyptian grape exports in (2014-2018) showed that grape exports are distributed over 30 countries with an average of 110.36 thousand tons.

with a value of 231.35 million USD.

It is divided into two groups Arab countries.

The European Union and other countries.

The Arab countries import 15.46%and the European Union imports 68.4% of the average quantity exported in the mentioned period.

the United Kingdom and Netherlands receive about 51.21%of the Egyptian grape exports in the period (2014-2018).

- By estimating the function of optimum demand on Egyptian grapes in the United Kingdom market; the price flexibility of demand on grapes showed that increasing prices by 1% leads to reducing demand in such market by 153%.

Cross-elasticities indicate that there is a non–competitive relationship between Egypt and South Africa .

non-competitive relationship between Egypt and Turkey in the case of high prices of Turkish grapes offset by a competitive relationship in favor of Turkey in the price of Egyptian grapes .

the increase in real grape spending in this market by about 1% leads to increase spending on Egyptian grapes by about 2.47% - By estimating the function of optimum demand on Egyptian grapes in the Netherlands market.

Cross-elasticities indicate that there is a competitive relationship between Egypt and Turkey in Turkey's price rises is greater than the competitive relationship in the case of higher prices in Egypt.

the increase in real grape spending in this market by about 1% leads to increase spending on Egyptian grapes by about 0.981% - From the features of Egyptian grapes exports in markets.

it was shown that there are markets where Egyptian grape imports increase such as: the Saudi.

the Emirate.

the Oman.

Kuwait.

Qatar.

UK.

Netherlands.

and Russia; and markets where Egyptian imports decrease and total imports increase such as: UAE.

Ireland.

and Sweden.

There are markets where Egyptian grape imports increase as their imports decrease.

such as: Bahrain.

Germany.

Austria.

and Belgium.

There are markets where Egyptian imports and total imports decrease.

such as Italy.

- From the results of the exporting performance of Egyptian grapes.

in general the market share of most the studied countries decreased.

It also showed a high penetration rate for both Kuwait and the Netherlands for study periods.

It was shown that Egypt has an apparent relative advantage of grape.

Also.

the Cha2 value was 0.301.

the M.

chaly index value was positive but very small (0.019).

The apparent competitive advantage was 6.702% on average in 2000-2018.

hence.

the recommendations are: - Stabilizing domestic grapes production.

and enhancing quality standards to meet global taste.

- Planning to produce grapes via plans depending on realistic data and information on demand before production season to provide the quantity and quality appropriate for exporting