الآثار الاقتصادية للسياسات السعرية للمحاصيل الغذائية الإستراتيجية على الأمن الغذائي المصري

الملخص EN

The study aimed at estimating the prices of farms in line with various economic variables and comparing them to the prices obtained by the farmes , in addition to evaluating the price policy followed in marketing the crops under study by estimating the partial equilibrium model to identify is effects on the welfare of both producers and consumers and its effects on the state budget.

This is in addition to the identification of some indicators of food security of crops studied.

The estimation of the time trend equation showed that the growth rates of consumer prices for wheat maize, rice, sugar and sugar during the period (2000-2016) exceeded 10.5%, 11.1%, 9.1%, and 10% respectively.

Producer prices were estimated at 9.4%, 10,4%, 7.9% and 10.5% respectively.

The results also showed that the agricultural prices obtained by the farmers during the average period (2014-2016) form maize, rice and sugar beet crops were lower than their estimated counterparts and in line with the different economic variables.

The agricultural price per ton of rice is about 2178 pounds and its estimated counterpart is about 2489 pounds.

The agricultural price per ton of sugar beet is about 372 pounds and its about 386 pounds, while the agricultural prices obtained by farmers for both wheat and sugar cane were higher than LE 355.

Estimated counterpart the price of agricultural wheat for about 413 pounds and the estimated counterpart about 393 pounds, and the price of agricultural sugar cane about 467 pounds and the estimated counterpart about 387 pounds.

The study also showed that the average per capita share of wheat, maize and rice decreased by 1.7%, 4.6% and 2.1% each year respectively.

%, 0.9% and 1.7% each year respectively.

The average annual per capita sugar increased by 1.1% and the percentage of self-sufficiency increased by 0.7% annually.

As shown by the estimation of the food security coefficient of the study crops during the periods (2005-2010) and (2011-2016), the decline of wheat from about 0.13 to about 0.11, and the decline of maize from 0.04 to (-0.04), and the increase of rice from about 0.02 to about 0.05, and increased sugar from about 0.01 to about 0.11 during the two study periods.

It is also clear from the results of estimating the partial equilibrium model during the periods (2005-2010)and (2011-2016)nominal protection coefficients of production during the two study periods for wheat and maize crops were greater than the one at about 1.10 and 1.15 each respectively during the period.

The first and about 1.38, 1.19 each respectively during the second period, which indicates that the price policy was in favor of producers of these crops during the two study periods, while it was less than the study periods for rice, sugar cane and sugar beet, which indicates that the policy the price was not in favor of the producers of these crops during the two periods the first period was 0.84, 0.97 and 0.75 each respectively and in the second period it was 0.88, 1.0 and 0.66 each respectively.

It was also found that the protection coefficients for consumption during the two study periods were less than the correct one for all the study crops, which indicates that the price policy during the two study periods was in favor of the consumers of these crops.

As shown by the economic efficiency indicators of the model, which are reflected indicators of the model , which are reflected in the social returns of the country in the field of production due to the lower international price than the domestic price, wheat, maize and suger cane crops achieved social returns for the country during the two study periods (2005-2010) and(2011-2016).the annual average of these revenues during the period(2011-2016)was about 1652,711.8,53.88 million pounds for each of these crops respectively, while rice and suger beet crops achieved asocial loss in the field of production during the two study periods.,293.26 million pounds each, respectively.

In the field of consumption wheat, maize, rice, sugar cane and sugar beet achieved social returns during the two study periods averaging 20391.23, 7170.74, 1945, 723.66 and 814.41 million each respectively during the second period (2011- 2016).

As shown by the economic welfare indicators, which reflect the distributional effects of price policy on both producers and consumers, it was found that wheat and maize achieved a surplus in production during the two study periods.

The annual average during the second period (2011-2016) was about 827.58, 2943.19 million pounds, which is refers to the economic well – being as a result of societal return in the production of these crops during the two study periods as a result of the price exceeds the farm price, while rice crops, sugar cane, sugar beet achieved societal loss during the two periods of the average annual during the second period LE 3476.65, 58.03 and 2331.55 pounds each, respectively, due to the lower price of each farmer than the border price during the two study periods.

Consumers surpluses for all the study crops achieved a social loss in consumption during the two periods of the study.

During the second period, this is due to the high price of the border over the domestic price of the consumers of these crops, which indicates that the distributional effects of these crops in favor of consumers.

It is clear from the indicators of the state revenues in the change in government revenues that the wheat and maize crops achieved government revenues during the two study periods.

The annual average in the second period was about 7714.79 and 1576.34 million pounds each, which indicates an increase in state revenues as a result of the production in addition to the rise in the state, s revenues on imports through implicit taxes, while rice, sugar cane and sugar beet achieved a loss in government revenues during the two study periods averaging 5310.71, 184.66 and 2823.68 million pounds each respectively.

And consoles this is due to the decrease in the state, s revenues from implicit taxes for these crops during the two study periods.

As for the change in foreign exchange earning, it is clear that the country has achieved foreign currency gains for all the study crops during the two study periods and that its annual average in the second period (2011-2016) was greater than in the first period (2005-2010) where the annual average of each wheat, maize, rice, sugar cane, sugar beet during the second study period is about 23605.66, 14374.67, 7040.03, 2262.29, 3933.62 each respectively.