تحليل اقتصادي لأثر التطور التكنولوجي على الإنتاج الزراعي في مصر

الملخص EN

Despite the significant advances in technology related to the development of new varieties and strains for both the plant and animal sectors, as well as the technology of agricultural machinery and equipment, and systems technology related to the extent of data utilization and the use of the method that maximizes the allocation and optimal utilization of available agricultural resources from land, water, human resources and capital, as well as biotechnology and mechanical technology.

However, the problem is that there has been a slowdown in the growth of agricultural income on the one hand, and increasing rates of growth in the value of agricultural inputs compared to the growth rates of agricultural production value on the other hand.

The study aimed to identify the role of elements of agricultural production (capital and labor) in the growth of the sector and the extent of their contribution to agricultural income and measuring the impact of technological change in agricultural output.

The research method was based on descriptive and quantitative analysis of statistical data.

Numerical tools and statistical methods were used in estimation and measurement.

The time trend of the variables was determined by the research, the arithmetic mean and geometric mean, the change rates and the coefficient of variation, the regression functions on the double logarithmic image, To estimate the percentages and indices in different forms, to achieve the target of the research The results showed that: 1- The value of agricultural production at current prices has taken an annual trend of increasing and significant statistical about 25.4 billion pounds with an annual growth rate of about 9.6%.

In real prices, the annual trend has increased and significant statistical by LE 4.1 billion and an annual growth rate of about 1.9%.

2- The value of the inputs of agricultural production at current prices has taken an annual trend that is increasing and significant statistically estimated at 5.3 billion pounds and an annual growth rate of about 10.0%.

In real prices, the annual trend has been increasing and significant statistically estimated at 1.3 billion pounds and annual growth rate of about 2.1%.

3- That the agricultural income at current prices has taken an annual trend of increasing and significant statistically estimated at LE 13 billion and an annual growth rate of about 9.5%.

in real prices, it took an annual trend that is growing and significant statistically estimated at 2.8 billion pounds and an annual growth rate of about 1.8%.

4- The volume of agricultural work has taken an annual trend of increasing and significant statistically estimated at about 0.14 million workers and an annual growth rate of about 2.4%.

5- The total wages of agricultural workers in current values have taken an annual trend that is increasing and significant statistically by LE 11.8 billion and an annual growth rate of 14.6%.

In real prices the annual trend has been increasing and significant statistically by LE 6.7 billion and annual growth rate of 8.4%.

6- The average wage of workers in agriculture in current values LE / worker / year was an annual trend that was increasing and significant statistically estimated at about LE 1.7 thousand and an annual growth rate of about 13.2%.

In real prices it took an annual general trend which is statistically significant and increased by about LE 0.84 thousand and annual growth rate Estimated at about 6.3%.

7- The annual average of the total cultivated area has taken an annual trend that is increasing and significant statistically by about 0.07 million fed.

And an annual growth rate of about 0.9%.

The annual average of the total cropped area has taken an annual trend of increasing and significant statistically about 0.11 million fed.

and an annual growth rate of about 0.7%, The annual mean of the total area of crop intensification has taken an annual trend of increasing and significant statistically about 0.4 million fed., and an annual growth rate of about 0.6%.

8- The yield of the pound invested in the inputs of agricultural production in current values was relatively stable.

In real prices, the annual trend was decreasing and significant statistically estimated at (20.4) pound / pound and the annual decline rate were estimated at (8.4%), In addition, the yield of the pound spent on agricultural work in current values was a general trend, which was estimated to be 0.24 Pound / pound, and an annual decline rate of 7.4%.

In real prices, the annual trend was decreasing and statistically significant (0.76) Pounds / pound, and the rate of annual decline is estimated at about (14.9%).

9- The most important factors influencing agricultural income were estimated by the double logarithmic mechanism, which was represented in the total area of the crop density of one million fed.

Per year, and the value of agricultural production requirements in one million pounds, and the size of agricultural labor (farmer), the results showed significance of the statistically relation estimated at the level of 0.01 according to the estimated value (f).

The value of the R-2 indicates that about 99% of the change in agricultural income is due to the change in the explanatory variables, increasing the agricultural intensification by 10% leads to an increase in agricultural income by 14.1%, and the increase of capital by about 10% leads to an increase in agricultural income by about 8.9%.

10- It also indicates the significance of the negative function constant which represents the coefficient of efficiency and reflects the effect of change in technological development and the level of productive art used in production, the skill level of the work component in terms of education and training, the economic policies adopted and their ability to create an attractive environment for investments.

Recommendations: In light of the findings of the study, it is recommended to support productive activities within the agricultural sector to attract more investments in technology applied in agricultural production, from developing higher yield varieties, better resistance to pests and adverse environmental and climatic conditions, , and modern marketing technology aimed at achieving the requirements of important international markets that achieve higher value add to raise the economic efficiency of the agricultural sector and increase its ability to afford the cost of advanced technology by raising the return on the pound Invested in the agricultural sector which characterized by economic fragility, which calls for the support of agricultural producers by the government, it is a policy followed by many countries in the world.