دراسة تحليلية لتقدير البصمة المائية و مؤشراتها لمحصول فول الصويا في مصر

الملخص EN

The objective of the study is to estimate the quantity and value of virtual water acquired from imports and external agricultural investment to achieve the relative food security of soybeans in Egypt during the period 2000-2017.

The research depended on the descriptive and quantitative economic and statistical analysis of the water footprint estimation equations.

the relative food security coefficient.

the quantity and value of the virtual water.

the two-dimensional probability distribution.

and the standard errors at 95% confidence level.

The results showed that the total water footprint increased from about 568.9 million m3 in 2000 to about 2298.9 million m3 in 2017 and a significant annual increase of 75 million m3 during the study period.

The ratio of dependence on external water imports For soybeans is about 93.98%.

so the average self-sufficiency rate of local water resources was about 60% during the study period.

While Egypt's strategic soybean stock was estimated at 75.3 thousand tons.

and in light of the average annual domestic consumption of the crop of about 1.5 thousand tons.

the soybean food security factor was estimated at 0.137 during the study period and in light of the above food security coefficient The relative importance of the contribution of local production to achieving relative food security for soybeans ranged between a minimum of -2.10% and a maximum of 3.69% at 95% confidence level.

The relative importance of the contribution of imports to the relative food security of soybeans ranged from a low of 2.83% to a maximum of 23.06% at the same confidence level.

The results indicate that with the achievement of the full level of food security (ie.

the correct food security coefficient).

the relative importance of the contribution of local production to the relative food security of soybeans ranges from a minimum of 3.31% to a maximum of about 4.

The relative importance of the contribution of imports to the relative food security of soybeans is between two minimums of about - 2.56% and a maximum of About 28.45% at the same confidence level.

while achieving the level The relative importance of the contribution of Egypt's agricultural investment abroad to the relative food security of soybeans is between two minimums of 70.36% and a maximum of 102.16% at the same confidence level .

It was found that the amount of virtual water obtained from the import of soybeans to achieve the full level of food security ranges from a minimum of about 34.11 million cubic meters.

with a financial value of about 10.75 million pounds and a maximum of about 378.56 million cubic meters.

The total amount of virtual water obtained from the import of soybeans to achieve the full level of food security ranges from a minimum of about 901.98 million m3.

with a financial value of about 284.12 million pounds.

and the maximum Amounting to about 1737.87 million m3.

with a financial value of about 547.43 million pounds at the same confidence level.

The study recommends the need for economic integration between local agriculture.

importation and agricultural investment abroad to achieve food security for soybeans.

and the importance of introducing the concept of virtual water in the development of the future strategy of the agricultural sector to ensure the adoption of less-used agricultural production systems.

Agriculture in agricultural products with high water needs.

especially in light of the escalating water crisis.