أثر إجراءات ضبط الاستيراد على الحد من العجز في الميزان التجاري المصري

الملخص EN

The trade balance is one of the most important indicators of the strength of the economy.

countries are trying through their trade policies to increase exports and limit imports to reduce the trade balance deficit.

considering the diversity of Egyptian imports, it is one of the most important international blocs with which trade agreements have been achieved, among the necessary strategic commodities production requirements on the one hand, and some non-essential consumer goods that have a local alternative on the other hand.

it is clear that the steps taken by Egypt to reduce the deficit in the Egyptian trade balance are overlapping and diversified.

therefore, there is an urgent need to ask question the probability of these steps and their role in reducing the problem of the Egyptian trade balance deficit.

the main objective of the research was to identify the relative impact of controlling in reducing Egypt’s trade balance deficit through achieved trade agreements with the most important international blocs for the period (2001-2020).the most important results of the research were that there are differences between the average deficit in the trade balance between Egypt and the understudy agreements and that Egypt followed a set of protective trade policies for multiple goals, including reducing the import of unnecessary commodities as well as limiting the import of commodities that have a local alternative and then reducing the deficit in the trade balance and at the same time protecting the national industry from dumping imports.

through the results of the gravity model, it is clear that there is a positive impact of the import controlling steps on the Egyptian trade balance with the member countries in all the understudy trade agreements (except for the COMESA agreement due to Egypt’s import of production requirements), where the greatest impact of these steps was on improving the trade balance of the Egyptian-European partnership agreement in the first place, with 49 million dollars annuity as a decrease in the Egyptian trade balance deficit with the countries of the agreement.

the Egyptian free trade agreement with turkey came in second place in the impact of import controlling steps on the trade balance, with an annual positive effect of about $7.9 million, then the Mercosur and the united states of America with an annual positive effect of about $4.5 million and $4.1 million each, respectively.

considering the results obtained, the research recommended the need to continue following policies related to reducing the trade balance deficit and reducing the import of non-essential commodities while adhering to the rules of the world trade organization followed in this regard.