قياس تأثير استهداف التضخم بالأدوات الكمية للسياسة النقدية في مصر باستخدام نموذج NARDL

الملخص EN

The research problem summarized in the following research question : what is impact of quantitative tools of monetary policy on inflation in Egypt? the NARDL model is applied.

the used data from the central bank of Egypt for the period (January 2011 : March 2021).

the most important results are as follows : -appropriateness of the model to the relationship between monetary policy variables (rediscount rate, open market operations) and inflation rate, whether in long or short term, and monetary policy variables contribute about 97% in explaining the changes in the inflation rate.

-the rises in the rediscount rate are considered one of the most influential variables in the long-term inflation rate, and positive relationship, followed by falls in open market operations and inverse relationship.

-the rises and falls in the monetary policy variables in the short term in the current month or previous months have a significant effect on the inflation rate in the current month, with the exception of falls in open market operations in the current month and excluding falls in the rediscount rate as they do not have a significant effect on the inflation rate in the short term.

-the inflation rate needs to take 4.5 months to return to its equilibrium value in the long term.

the research recommends conducting follow up studies to measure the impact of monetary policy change on inflation targeting.

in addition to, securing coordination between the quantitative tools of monetary policy, especially the rediscount rate and open market operations.