تقدير العلاقة السببية بين حجم الاقتصاد غير الرسمي و الإيرادات الضريبية في مصر

الملخص EN

The problem of increasing the size of the informal economy in modern economies, especially developing ones, is one of the most important basic obstacles to the economic development.

one of the most important of these obstacles is the diminishing size of the state's tax revenue compared to the actual output.

there are potential tax revenues in the informal sector.

therefore, including this sector in the tax base will increase tax revenues and support economic development.

the size of the informal economy in the Egyptian economy was estimated at about (30-40 %) of GDP, and the number of workers in the informal economy is estimated at about 63 % of the total employed in all sectors.

the main reasons for the growth of the informal sector are : increasing the size of the burdens on the formal sector, inefficiency of the tax system, distortions in the labor market, administrative and bureaucratic complications.

this study aims to estimate the causal relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax revenues in Egypt using autoregressive distributed leg model (ARDL).

results can be summarized as follows : there is a causal relationship between the size of the informal economy and tax revenues, both of which affect the other in a significant way.

in addition, the quality of institutions, the real exchange rate, the real interest rate and the level of inflation have a significant impact on this relationship.