التقييم الاقتصادي للصيد البحري و الاستزراع السمكي البحري و اشتقاق منحنيات معدل العائد المتماثل

الملخص EN

In Egypt, there are many sources of fishing : the seas, northern lakes, coastal depressions, inland lakes, as well as the Nile River and its branches, and finally fish farming systems.

the area suitable for fishing in the Mediterranean is about 6.8 million feddans.

the problem of the study ; for many reasons, many fishermen have resorted to working in other fields that are more profitable than sea fishing.

the study aims to derive the hypothetical curves for the Iso-internal rate of return curves for the investment in marine fish farming in the North Coast.

in addition to the following goals : (1) determining the most important factors affecting fish production from sea sources.

(2) estimating investment efficiency measures in marine fish farming in the northern coast.

(3) estimating and measuring the impact of the most important risks arising from changes in technical coefficients and economic variables affecting investment in fish farming by measuring their impact on the values of the studied investment efficiency measures.

(4) deriving various combinations of technical coefficients or economic variables that determine Iso-IRR Curves for marine fish farming in the studied area.

in achieving its previous objectives, the study relied on primary field data collected from a random sample of 20 marine fish farms on the northern coast.

the study also relied on descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis methods.

in addition to estimating the inflow, outflow and net cash flows sheets, and estimating the investment efficiency indicators.

the main results can be summarized as follows : (1) there is a strong positive relationship between the quantity of fish production from the seas and each of the number of motorized boats and the number of fishermen.

(2) there is a strong inverse relationship between the quantity of fish production from the seas and the wholesale prices of tilapia and mullet fishes.

(3) the internal rate of return in the sample farms was estimated at 33.7%, which indicates the high economic feasibility of investing in marine fish farming.

the benefits / cost ratio was estimated at 1.15 LE, and the net present worth during the span life of the project was estimated at 3.076 million LE.

the speed of capital turnover was approximately 3 years.

(4) an increase in the price of concentrated feed by 5% leads to : (i) a decrease in the internal rate of return from about 33.7% to about 18%, i.e.

a decrease of 46%.

(ii) the decrease in the benefits / costs ratio from about 1.15 pounds to about 1.12 pounds, i.e.

a decrease of 3%.

(iii) the decrease in net present worth from about 3.076 million LE to about 1.034 million LE, i.e.

a decrease of 66%.

(iv) the deterioration of the capital turnover rate from about 2.96 years to about 5.53 years, i.e.

a decrease of about 86%