تحليل الآثار المحتملة لتطبيق حزمة سياسات مقترحة لرفع كفاءة قطاع الإنتاج الحيواني في مصر باستخدام نموذج التوازن العام الحسابي

الملخص EN

The current research is directed to investigate and quantitively analyze the effects on the implementation of a package of policies proposed to improve the efficiency of the livestock production sector.

the sub-objectives are to identify the indicators of the agricultural sector's efficiency in general and the livestock sector in particular in case of continuing the current (reference path scenario), propose policies that would increase efficiency in livestock production, and discuss the potential implications of the proposed policies.

the study adopts the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model, a multi-sector model based on consistent and comprehensive social accounting matrix (SAM).

based on the economic logic, the model is used to capture and assess the impacts of two main effects over the reference path : (i) doubling the total factor productivity (TFP) for both crops and livestock production and (ii) increasing the agricultural investment by 2% of agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP).

the main results show that proposed policy package (shocks) have positive impacts on both the aggregate and sectoral levels.

the agricultural GDP is expected to improve by about 4.53% over the reference scenario.

this, in turn, will lead to an improvement in GDP, which is expected to rise by about 3.69%.

the results also indicate an improvement in the real incomes of household groups because of the decrease in the general price level (0.3%) induced by the increase in productivity and hence production.

regarding the farmers group, it comes first among the household groups in terms of the increase in income (2.8%) and consumption (8%), as being the direct beneficiaries of the impact of the proposed policies.

in light of these results, it is recommended that the identified set of livestock policies, proven to be effective and economically viable, should be adopted in order to raise the efficiency of the sector in particular.