البعد الاقتصادي للوضع الراهن و المستقبلي للإكتفاء الذاتي للحوم الدواجن في مصر

الملخص EN

The research aimed to study the current situation of production and consumption, the average per capita share, self-sufficiency, and the gap in poultry meat, and to study the most important variables affecting the quantity consumed of it.

the impact of the exchange rate liberalization in 2016, and the impact of the January revolution.

the study addressed the future situation of production and consumption, the size of the gap, and self-sufficiency until the year 2025.

it turned out that the total production and consumption of poultry meat in Egypt tended to increase at an annual growth rate of about 5.7% and 6%, respectively.

the "consumption function" was estimated between the quantities consumed of poultry meat and the factors affecting it, which are the prices of alternative protein at the real price and the prices of poultry.

in addition to the real per capita income, the population, the exchange rate, the effect of the liberalization of the exchange rate, and the effect of the January revolution, it became clear from the value of the determination coefficient, which amounted to about 95%, that the changes that occur in the consumed quantities of poultry meat are due to the aforementioned factors, and the rest is due to other factors that were not taken into account.

real fish at a significant level of 0.05, it was clear from the consumption function estimation that an increase in the population by 1% leads to an increase in the consumed quantities of poultry meat by 3.8%, and an increase in the price of fish in pounds leads to an increase in poultry consumption by 7.6%.

the forecast results also indicated that the average production may reach 2.2 million tons, and the consumption is about 2.1 million tons, with a sufficiency rate of 99%, during the period (2021-2025).