دراسة تحليلية لأثر المتغيرات المحلية و الدولية على تحقيق الأمن الغذائي من محصول القمح في مصر

الملخص EN

Egypt is facing many economic, financial and food crises, which negatively affect its ability to provide food for its citizens, due to dependence on global food markets and limited countries for supply chains.

Egypt is net importer of food, despite the availability of natural and human resources.

the value of the deficit of food balance increased from 8893 million pounds year 2000 to 28964 million pounds year 2022, it is a weak percentage.

food insecurity rate increased, the index of global food security in Egypt during the period (2012-2020) about 60.8, it ranks 62 out of 113 countries.

increase of food commodities prices in Egypt, due to the devaluation of Egyptian pound, then the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, according to 70% of the respondents.

the value of food security coefficient for cereals and wheat were about 0.01,-0.96 during the average period (2000-2020), which indicates decrease in the food security coefficient of wheat.

the food gap of wheat increased to 12.9 million tons in 2020.

estimation the most important factors affecting the quantity of wheat imports indicate that there is statistically significant inverse relationship between domestic production of wheat and quantity of wheat import, in addition to positive and statistically significant relationship between the imports quantity of wheat, population, and loss quantity of wheat.

recommended to diversify food import sources, modify the current crop structure and priority to strategic crops, activate role of contract farming center, reduce loss of wheat during the various stages, and determine appropriate prices for purchasing wheat from producers.