دراسة اقتصادية لأهم العوامل المحددة لأسعار الأسمدة الكيماوية في مصر

الملخص EN

The continuous increase in the population in Egypt has led to an increase in the demand for food, and puts pressure on providing more agricultural land, which requires high costs.

therefore, vertical expansion has become one of the most important means of overcoming the lack of food supply, and the use of chemical fertilizers is a key element in achieving increased production per unit of cultivated area.

therefore, the research aimed to build guiding models through which changes that can occur in the prices of chemical fertilizers can be calculated in the event of a change in the factors affecting those prices, or a change in the policies related to the production of chemical fertilizers in Egypt.

these models serve as an early warning method to mitigate crises or shocks in the chemical fertilizer market.

the research used both the descriptive and quantitative analytical approaches, and the study relied on the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL).

the results indicated the important role played by the price of natural gas, decreasing the price of natural gas by 1% which leads to a decrease in the price of ammonium sulphate fertilizer by about 1.05%, a decrease in the price of super phosphate 37% by 0.23%, a decrease in the price of ammonium nitrate by 0.64%, and a decrease in the price of ammonium nitrate by 0.64%.

the price of urea decreased by 0.12%, as well as the decrease in the price of superphosphate 15 by 0.20%, assuming that other factors remain constant.

however, it is noted that the rate of change in the price of ammonia sulfate fertilizer is weak, and the reason for this may be the subsidy provided by the government for natural gas in the fertilizer industry companies during the study period, as the government in Egypt encouraged the industry in general by providing fuel and natural gas subsidized to the industry before starting to liberalize fuel prices in general, and adopting a new policy in pricing natural gas for fertilizer factories, starting from 2022.