تحليل اقتصادي لأثر التغير الصنفي على إنتاج محصول الأرز في مصر

الملخص EN

The research examined the relative importance of rice varieties at the level of the republic, the effect of varieties change on the quantity supplied through the use of (Ayer and Shaw coefficient), and analysis of variance to identify both the effect of the difference between the governorates of rice production, as well as the effect of the cultivar variable on the productivity of the feddan, duncan's method was used to test the least significant range LSR to compare the differences between the average yields per feddan of the rice cropn the results of the effect of the varieties change on the quantity supplied from the rice varieties using (Ayer and Shaw coefficient) indicate that the relative transition coefficient in supply amounted to about 2.69%, 1.46%, 1.1%, 0.55%, 0.44 %, 0.32%, 0.1, respectively, for the varieties of Giza 178, Giza 177, Sakha 104, Sakha 108, super 300, Giza 179, Sakha 106, with a total of 6.66%, this means that the cultivation of the aforementioned varieties led to an increase in the quantity supplied of the crop by about 6.66%.

the results of the variance analysis of the effect of the varieties change on the feddan productivity of the crop showed that the super 300 variety ranked first in productivity, followed by the Giza 179 variety, and there was no significant difference between the productivity the two cultivars, while there were significant differences between them and the rest of the aforementioned cultivars.

it was found that when replacing the super 300 rice variety with less productive relative varieties, it leads to an increase in production estimated at about 495 thousand tons of rice, providing an estimated cultivated area of about 133.8 thousand acres, at an average productivity that was achieved during the study period of 3.7 tons / feddan, which represents about 11% of the average domestic production of rice, with an estimated market value of about 3.4 billion pounds, according to the purchase price of rice announced by the ministry of supply in 2022, about 6850 pounds / ton.

the study recommends expanding the cultivation of modern varieties such as super 300, Giza 179, and Sakha 108.