دور القطاع الزراعي في خفض معدلات الفقر في مصر

الملخص EN

Most of the world's poor earn their living from farming, so if we knew the economics of agriculture, we would know a lot of the economics of being poor.

good agricultural performance reduces poverty measured through income and price channels.

since a high percentage of the poor depend on agriculture as their main source of income, it is normal to believe that an increase in agricultural income will result in a greater reduction in poverty than a general increase in national income.

after testing the stationery and co-integration of the variables, either a vector autoregressive regression model (VAR) or a vector error correction model (VECM) can be used for estimation.

in the absence of co-integration, the VAR model is a preferred method of estimation.

based on the above, the relationship between poverty and each of the following estimated : 1) agricultural GDP per worker, 2) nonagricultural GDP per worker, and 3) remittances per capita, through vector autoregressive regression analysis (VAR).

the poverty variable was the percentage of the population living below the poverty line of $2.00 per day.

the results obtained are fully consistent with most previous studies in showing that agricultural progress contributes strongly to poverty reduction.

the regression coefficients for agricultural GDP / worker, non-farm GDP / worker and remittances per capita were all statistically inverse in agreement with the theory.

while the estimated coefficient of agricultural GDP / worker was significantly higher than either of the other two variables, but this does not necessarily mean that the growth in agricultural GDP factor was more important than the growth in the other two variables since the answer to this question also depends on actual growth rates in the three variables during the study period.