دراسة اقتصادية لإنتاج و استهلاك الفول البلدي في مصر و توقعاته المستقبلية

الملخص EN

The municipal beans are one of the most important winter food leguminous crops as it is a major food for the majority of the spectrums of the Egyptian people and is no less important than a loaf of bread, as municipal beans are grown in various governorates of Egypt, where its area reached about 117.3 thousand acres in 2021 with a total production of about 168.4 thousand tons for the same year, according to the estimates of the economic affairs sector of the ministry of agriculture and land reclamation, and forecasting is a scientific approach that can help decision makers, whether economic or non-economic in making their future decisions, the most important results of the research showed a decrease in both the farm area and the total production of the bean crop during the period (2000-2021) by about 6.8%, 6.4% of the general average for them during that period, respectively, as well as an increase in acre productivity by about 0.28% during the same period, in addition to increasing the annual average of the farm price, total costs and net acre return to about 10.7%, 10.4% and 11.4% respectively during the period (2000-2021), while the per capita share of municipal beans decreased by about 0.03% annually, as well as the percentage of self-sufficiency by about 6.9%, it is clear from the results that the food security coefficient is less than the correct one and close to zero, which indicates a significant decrease in the level of food security for the municipal bean crop in Egypt, and the dual exponential preparation method (HULT) was used, which gives the best and lowest values to the criteria used in the evaluation, which are the absolute mean (MAD), the average square of deviations (MSD) and the average absolute error ratio (MAPA).