العلاقة التبادلية بين صدمات أسعار النفط في الأسواق العالمية وارتداداتها على الموازنة العامة في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1973-2020)‎: دراسة تحليلية قياسية

الملخص EN

This study aims to highlight the impact of oil price shocks and their repercussions on the balance of the general budget in Algeria through a standard study based on the joint integration methodology of (Engle & Granger) during the period from 1973 to 2020.

Through this study, we concluded that there is a long-term relationship that adjusts to an equilibrium value in each period t by 35%, which is reflected by the value of the correction factor of the ECM error correction model.

This indicates that the balance of the general budget will take two years and eight months (2.

8 years) for the trend To its equilibrium value after each shock in oil prices, the results of the structural stability test of the estimated model regression coefficients for each of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ statistic indicated the presence of a structural fracture coinciding with the year 2015 as a turning point in the standard model, the year after 2014 Where did the world markets experience a severe shock in oil prices that caused a large deficit in the state budget.