دراسة تحليلية للطلب على المحاصيل التصديرية في أهم الأسواق العربية

الملخص EN

The problem research is the chronic deficit in both the Egyptian trade balance in general and the agricultural balance in particular.

the value of Egyptian agricultural exports amounted to 57.1 billion pounds, while the value of agricultural imports was about 164.35 billion pounds, and the deficit in the agricultural trade balance amounted to about 107.26 billion pounds, in 2021.

aims study research to the impact of the relative export price on Egypt’s share of the grape, onion and orange crop in the most important Arab markets represented by Saudi Arabia, the emirates, and Kuwait during the period (2000-2021).

-using the direct model, it was found that by studying the effect of the export price on the quantity of exports of the study crops a, the price elasticity was estimated at -0.250, -0.071, -0.34, and that is the grape yield for the countries of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait, respectively.

as for the onion crop, the price elasticity amounted to about -0.370, -2.18, -1.26 for the three countries, respectively, and it amounted to about -0.305, -1.06, -1.82 for the orange crop of the three countries, respectively.

by measuring the effect of the relative export burden on Egypt’s share of the study crops from the world's imports for the three countries using the substitution elasticity model, where the elasticity value of the grape crop was about -0.461, -2.05, -0.58 for each of the three countries, respectively.

as for the onion crop, the flexibility amounted to about 0.420 for Saudi Arabia, and its morale was statistically proven at the 5% level, and it reached about -3.88 for the emirates, and its morale was statistically proven at the 1% level.

as for the orange crop, the elasticity was about -0.689, -0.690, -1.714 for the three countries, respectively.