استخدام نموذج ألتمان ALTMAN للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي للمصارف التجارية الليبية : دراسة تطبيقية على مصرف الوحدة

الملخص EN

The study aimed to predict the financial failure of Libyan commercial banks using the ALTMAN model, known as (Zeta-3), as it is one of the most important models for predicting financial failure in the financial sector, in order to reach preliminary results that help management diagnose weaknesses and strengths in performance and then take action.

Appropriate corrective measures through drawing up rational policies that work to reduce the possibilities of financial failure of Libyan commercial banks, providing decision-makers with confirmed scientific facts about the operational policies of Libyan commercial banks, identifying the results of their work, and discovering cases of financial failure early in order to take appropriate preventive measures to avoid them.

A sample of Libyan commercial banks was chosen, represented by Al-Wahda Bank, and the study relied on analyzing the data contained in the financial statements of the bank under study during the period 2011-2020 AD.

According to the model used, the results showed the possibility of financial failure of the bank under study, and that there is a decrease in the working capital ratio.

To the total assets, which leads to the bank's inability to meet its obligations in the short term.

It also concluded that the bank's credit policy is weak, and the management's inefficiency in exploiting assets to generate profits, which negatively affected the bank's profitability.

The study recommended that the managements of Libyan commercial banks by taking advantage of financial analysis models to evaluate its performance and identify deficiencies and weaknesses in order to predict problems before they occur and take the necessary corrective measures in a timely manner.