أثر الإنفاق الحكومي على نصيب الفرد من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في ليبيا : دراسة قياسية :

الملخص EN

There is a lively debate in the literature about the association between public expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

this study seeks to examine the effect of total public expenditure on (GDP) per capita.

it also explores whether the political change after February 2011 has an impact on GDP per capita.

the study mainly used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model over the period of 1990-2020.

the empirical evidence suggests that there is a positive statistically significant impact of total public expenditure on GDP per capita merely in the long run.

also, the cointegration tests for current and capital expenditure and gdp per capita show the existence of a long-run positive and significant effect, highlighting that the current expenditure had the most effect.

findings also indicate that the political change after 2011 in the short term had a positive and significant impact on the GDP per capita, however, in the long run, the impact was negative statistically significant.

the findings confirmed that the cointegration relationship between total public expenditure and GDP per capita in Libya responds automatically to reach equilibrium, and the speed of error correction reaches at least 88% in the long run.

based on these results, we have provided recommendations presented to policy-makers is to improve the performance of capital expenditure through the expansion of economic and social infrastructure and the pursuit of political stability that guarantees economic well-being.