تقدير أثر المتغيرات النقدية على سعر الصرف في الجزائر (1970-2020)‎ باستخدام نموذج ARDL

الملخص EN

This research aims to study and find out the impact of the most important monetary variables, represented in: interest rate, monetary mass, inflation rate, external debt, on the exchange rate variable, for the Algerian economy during 1970 to 2020, using the ARDL model, and it was concluded that there is no long-term relationship between each of the monetary variables and the exchange rate, and there is in the short term: a positive and significant effect of the interest rate on the exchange rate by 22.1769, the effect of significant and negative for the variable of the size of the monetary mass on the exchange rate by 0.3138%, as well as a significant effect (10%) for the size of the monetary mass one time delay on the exchange rate by 0.1915%, with a significant and negative effect (10 %) for the volume of external debt over the exchange rate by 35,6240%.

hence, it is necessary to liberalize interest rates and control more money supply.